Projected climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Pacific Northwest rivers

[1] A dominant river-tracing-based streamflow and temperature (DRTT) model was developed by coupling stream thermal dynamics with a source-sink routing model. The DRTT model was applied using 1/16 degree (∼6 km) resolution gridded daily surface meteorology inputs over a ∼988,000 km2 Pacific Northwest (PNW) domain to produce regional daily streamflow and temperature simulations from 1996 to 2005. The DRTT results showed favorable performance for simulation of daily stream temperature (mean R2= 0.72 and root-mean-square error = 2.35°C) and discharge (mean R2 = 0.52 and annual relative error = 14%) against observations from 12 PNW streams. The DRTT was then applied with a macroscale hydrologic model to predict streamflow and temperature changes under historical (1980s) and future (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) climate change scenarios (IPCC AR4) as they may affect current and future patterns of freshwater salmon habitat and associated productivity of PNW streams. The model projected a 3.5% decrease in mean annual streamflow for the 2020s and 0.6% and 5.5% increases for the 2040s and 2080s, respectively, with projected increase in mean annual stream temperatures from 0.55°C (2020s) to 1.68°C (2080s). However, summer streamflow decreased from 19.3% (2020s) to 30.3% (2080s), while mean summer stream temperatures warmed from 0.92°C to 2.10°C. The simulations indicate that projected climate change will have greater impacts on snow dominant streams, with lower summer streamflows and warmer summer stream temperature changes relative to transient and rain dominant regimes. Lower summer flows combined with warmer stream temperatures suggest a future with widespread increased summertime thermal stress for coldwater fish in the PNW region.

[1]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[2]  J. Kimball,et al.  Restoring salmon in a changing climate , 2013 .

[3]  R. Bras.  Hydrology : an introduction to hydrologic science , 1990 .

[4]  G. Grant,et al.  Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, Oregon , 2007 .

[5]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Production of Temporally Consistent Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Fields for the Continental United States , 2005 .

[6]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S. , 2006 .

[7]  G. Poole.  PROFILE An Ecological Perspective on InStream Temperature : Natural Heat Dynamics and Mechanisms of Human-Caused Thermal Degradation , 2001 .

[8]  D. Randall,et al.  Climate models and their evaluation , 2007 .

[9]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures , 1998 .

[10]  S. Johnson,et al.  Stream temperature: scaling of observations and issues for modelling , 2003 .

[11]  Mysore G. Satish,et al.  Predicting water temperatures using a deterministic model : Application on Miramichi River catchments (New Brunswick, Canada) , 2007 .

[12]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models , 1994 .

[13]  Imprints of secondary heat sources on the stream temperature/equilibrium temperature relationship , 2004 .

[14]  John Yearsley,et al.  A semi‐Lagrangian water temperature model for advection‐dominated river systems , 2009 .

[15]  David R. Maidment,et al.  Geographic Information Systems (GIS)‐based spatially distributed model for runoff routing , 1999 .

[16]  D. Hannah,et al.  Recent advances in stream and river temperature research , 2008 .

[17]  D. Hannah,et al.  Spatial heterogeneity of water temperature across an alpine river basin , 2008 .

[18]  S. Running,et al.  An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature , 1997 .

[19]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States* , 2002 .

[20]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[21]  B. Rieman,et al.  Influences of Temperature and Environmental Variables on the Distribution of Bull Trout within Streams at the Southern Margin of Its Range , 2003 .

[22]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Effects of 20 th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U . S . , 2007 .

[23]  H. Loáiciga,et al.  Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA , 2000 .

[24]  K. Fausch,et al.  Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[25]  P. Mote,et al.  Future climate in the Pacific Northwest , 2010 .

[26]  John FitzGibbon,et al.  Modeling the Effects of Land Use Change on the Water Temperature in Unregulated Urban Streams , 1997 .

[27]  S. Sorooshian,et al.  Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall‐runoff models , 1992 .

[28]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State , 2010 .

[29]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest region of North America , 2000 .

[30]  Francisco Olivera,et al.  Global‐scale flow routing using a source‐to‐sink algorithm , 2000 .

[31]  J. Kimball,et al.  RESTORING SALMON HABITAT FOR A CHANGING CLIMATE , 2013 .

[32]  Jim Constantz,et al.  Effects of upstream dams versus groundwater pumping on stream temperature under varying climate conditions , 2010 .

[33]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature dynamics: Measurements and modeling , 1993 .

[34]  D. Lettenmaier,et al.  Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model: Evaluation and modification , 1996 .

[35]  Michael C. Quick,et al.  Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections , 2002 .

[36]  Erin E Peterson,et al.  Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network. , 2010, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[37]  Agnès Ducharne,et al.  Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality , 2007 .

[38]  Se-Yeun Lee,et al.  Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State , 2010 .

[39]  Y. Zhang,et al.  SPATIAL AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN THE COMPONENTS OF THE RIVER HEAT BUDGET , 1997 .

[40]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[41]  N. LeRoy Poff,et al.  Implications of Streamflow Variability and Predictability for Lotic Community Structure: A Regional Analysis of Streamflow Patterns , 1989 .

[42]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 1 , 1999 .

[43]  S. Running,et al.  An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation , 1999 .

[44]  Eric A. Rosenberg,et al.  A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States: Update and Extensions* , 2002 .

[45]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature/air temperature relationship : a physical interpretation , 1999 .

[46]  Annett B. Sullivan,et al.  Modeling Streamflow and Water Temperature in the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers, Oregon, 2001-02 , 2004 .

[47]  Yitian Li,et al.  River temperature sensitivity to hydraulic and meteorological parameters. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[48]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios : a special report of Working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2000 .

[49]  Alan F. Hamlet,et al.  Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State , 2010 .

[50]  D. Maidment,et al.  UNIT HYDROGRAPH DERIVED FROM A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED VELOCITY FIELD , 1996 .

[51]  John S. Kimball,et al.  Automated upscaling of river networks for macroscale hydrological modeling , 2008 .

[52]  Dennis P. Lettenmaier,et al.  A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin , 2006 .

[53]  Daqing Yang,et al.  Stream temperature changes over Lena River Basin in Siberia , 2005 .

[54]  Heinz G. Stefan,et al.  Stream temperature‐equilibrium temperature relationship , 2003 .

[55]  E. Maurer.  Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios , 2007 .

[56]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models , 1994 .

[57]  John S. Kimball,et al.  A Riverscape Analysis Tool Developed to Assist Wild Salmon Conservation Across the North Pacific Rim , 2012 .

[58]  D. Caissie,et al.  Study of stream temperature dynamics and corresponding heat fluxes within Miramichi River catchments (New Brunswick, Canada) , 2011 .

[59]  G. Poole,et al.  An Ecological Perspective on In-Stream Temperature: Natural Heat Dynamics and Mechanisms of Human-CausedThermal Degradation , 2001, Environmental management.

[60]  J. Constantz.  Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams , 1998 .

[61]  Pavel Kabat,et al.  Global river temperatures and sensitivity to atmospheric warming and changes in river flow , 2011 .

[62]  J. H. Petersen,et al.  Research in Thermal Biology: Burning Questions for Coldwater Stream Fishes , 2009 .

[63]  I. Haag,et al.  The integrated water balance and water temperature model LARSIM-WT , 2008 .