The Marginals Never Vanished: Incumbency and Competition in Elections to the U.S. House OfRepresentatives, 1952-1982

The average vote margin enjoyed by incumbent candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives increased sharply during the 1960s. Despite this, and contrary to assumptions common in the literature on recent congressional elections, electoral data show that House incumbents are no safer now than they were in the 1950s, the marginals, properly defined, have not vanished; the swing ratio has diminished little, if at all; and competition for House seats held by incumbents has not declined. Vote margins increased without adding to incumbent security, diminishing competition, or dampening swings because the heterogeneity of interelection vote swings increased at the same time.

[1]  J. Ferejohn,et al.  Presidential Coattails in Historical Perspective , 1984 .

[2]  J. R. Alford,et al.  Increased Incumbency Advantage in the House , 1981, The Journal of Politics.

[3]  David R. Mayhew.  Congressional Elections: The Case of the Vanishing Marginals , 1974, Polity.

[4]  W. D. Burnham.  Insulation and Responsiveness in Congressional Elections , 1975 .

[5]  G. Jacobson.  Money in congressional elections , 1980 .

[6]  Albert D. Cover.  One Good Term Deserves Another. The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections , 1977 .

[7]  Richard F. Fenno.  Home Style : House Members in Their Districts , 1978 .

[8]  John A. Ferejohn,et al.  On the Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections , 1977, American Political Science Review.

[9]  Diana Evans Yiannakis.  The Grateful Electorate: Casework and Congressional Elections , 1981 .

[10]  D. J. Gow,et al.  The Pro-Incumbent Bias in the 1978 and 1980 National Election Studies , 1983 .

[11]  G. Jacobson.  Incumbents' Advantages in the 1978 U. S. Congressional Elections , 1981 .

[12]  John R. Johannes,et al.  The Congressional Incumbency Effect: Is It Casework, Policy Compatibility, or Something Else? An Examination of the 1978 Election , 1981 .

[13]  Donald A. Gross,et al.  Changes in the Vote Margins for Congressional Candidates: A Specification of Historical Trends , 1984, American Political Science Review.

[14]  G. Parker.  The Advantage of Incumbency in House Elections , 1980 .

[15]  A. Abramowitz.  Name Familiarity, Reputation, and the Incumbency Effect in a Congressional Election , 1975 .

[16]  Thomas E. Mann.  Unsafe at Any Margin: Interpreting Congressional Elections , 1978 .

[17]  E. Tufte.  The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems , 1973, American Political Science Review.

[18]  M. Collie.  Incumbency, Electoral Safety, and Turnover in the House of Representatives, 1952–76 , 1981, American Political Science Review.

[19]  David John Gow,et al.  The Pro-Incumbent Bias in the 1982 National Election Study , 1984 .

[20]  M. Fiorina.  Some Problems in Studying the Effects of Resource Allocation in Congressional Elections , 1981 .

[21]  Thomas E. Mann,et al.  Candidates and Parties in Congressional Elections , 1980, American Political Science Review.

[22]  Richard Born,et al.  Generational Replacement and the Growth of Incumbent Reelection Margins in the U.S. House , 1979, American Political Science Review.

[23]  Morris P. Fiorina.  The Case of the Vanishing Marginals: The Bureaucracy Did It , 1977 .

[24]  Robert S. Erikson.  The Advantage of Incumbency in Congressional Elections , 1971, Polity.

[25]  James L. Payne,et al.  The Personal Electoral Advantage of House Incumbents, 1936-1976 , 1980 .

[26]  John R. Wright,et al.  The Incumbency Effect in Congressional Elections: A Test of Two Explanations , 1983 .