Derailment Probability Analyses and Modeling of Mainline Freight Trains

We conducted statistical analyses and used modeling techniques to develop derailment probabilities for freight trains and freight cars operating on North American r ilroads. Knowing the expected frequency of dera ilment and the conditional probabilities of derailment for individ ual cars enables estimation of the derailment risk as it is affected by train length, operating speed, and positioning of cars in the consist. These results can be used to quantify the benefit in terms of reduced accident probability and severity of variou s changes in railroad operating and safety practice s.