A tool to manage tasks of R&D projects

We propose a tool for managing tasks of Research and Development (R&D) projects. We define an R&D project as a network of tasks and we assume that different amounts of resources may be allocated to a task, leading to different costs and different average execution times. The advancement of a task is stochastic, and the management may reallocate resources while the task is being performed, according to its progress. We consider that a strategy for completing a task is a set of rules that define the level of resources to be allocated to the task at each moment. We discuss the evaluation of strategies for completing a task, and we address the problem of finding the optimal strategy. The model herein presented uses real options theory, taking into account operational flexibility, uncertain factors and the task progression. The evaluation procedure should maximize the financial value for the task and give the correspondent strategy to execute it. The procedure and model developed are general enough to apply to a generic task of an R&D project. It is simple and the input parameters can be inferred through company and/or project information.

[1]  Gonzalo Cortazar,et al.  The valuation of multidimensional American real options using the LSM simulation method , 2008, Comput. Oper. Res..

[2]  Danny Cassimon,et al.  Compound Real Option Valuation with Phase-Specific Volatility: A Multi-Phase Mobile Payments Case Study , 2010 .

[3]  Stewart C. Myers,et al.  Finance Theory and Financial Strategy , 1984 .

[4]  Sunil Kumar,et al.  Optimizations in financial engineering: The Least-Squares Monte Carlo method of Longstaff and Schwartz , 2008, 2008 IEEE International Symposium on Parallel and Distributed Processing.

[5]  Artur Rodrigues,et al.  The Valuation of Real Options with the Least Squares Monte Carlo Simulation Method , 2006 .

[6]  Enrico Pennings,et al.  Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[7]  Francis A. Longstaff,et al.  Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach , 2001 .

[8]  Liu Min,et al.  Valuation research of real options on the basis of life cycles R&D projects , 2008, 2008 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 15th Annual Conference Proceedings.

[9]  Timothy B. Folta,et al.  Real options in equity partnerships , 2002 .

[10]  Thomas G. Bifano,et al.  Management of R&D projects under uncertainty: a multidimensional approach to managerial flexibility , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.

[11]  Dean Paxson,et al.  A gene to drug venture: Poisson options analysis , 2001 .

[12]  Onno Lint,et al.  An Option Approach to the New Product Development Process: a case study at Philips Electronics , 2001 .

[13]  A.C. Tolga,et al.  Fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation of R&D projects and a fuzzy trinomial lattice approach for real options , 2008, 2008 3rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering.

[14]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Optimal Exploration Investments Under Price and Geological-Technical Uncertainty: A Real Options Model , 2000 .

[15]  C. Rehtanz,et al.  Real option valuation of FACTS investments based on the least square Monte Carlo method , 2011, 2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting.

[16]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Rational Pricing of Internet Companies , 2000 .

[17]  Lars Stentoft,et al.  Convergence of the Least Squares Monte Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[18]  Fasheng Qiu,et al.  The value of management flexibility—a real option approach to investment evaluation , 2003 .

[19]  Río Hondo Investment Under Uncertainty in Information Technology: Acquisition and Development Projects , 2003 .

[20]  Manfred Perlitz,et al.  Real options valuation: the new frontier in R&D project evaluation? , 1999 .