Modeling and Imaging Techniques with Potential for Application in Bioterrorism

In this paper we present a survey of several recent and emerging ideas and e orts on modeling and system interrogation in the presence of uncertainty that we feel have signi cant potential for applications related to bioterrorism. The rst focuses on physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) type models and the e ects of drugs, toxins and viruses on tissue, organs, individuals and populations wherein both intraand inter-individual variability are present when one attempts to determine kinetic rates, susceptibility, eÆcacy of toxins, antitoxins, etc., in aggregate populations. Methods combining deterministic and stochastic concepts are necessary to formulate and computationally solve the associated estimation problems. Similar issues arise in the HIV infectious models we also present below. A second e ort concerns the use of remote electromagnetic interrogation pulses linked to dielectric properties of materials to carry out macroscopic structural imaging of bulk packages (drugs, explosives, etc.) as well as test for presence and levels of toxic chemical compounds in tissue. These techniques also may be useful in functional imaging (e.g., of brain and CNS activity levels) to determine levels of threat in potential adversaries via changes in dielectric properties and conductivity. The PBPK and cellular level virus infectious models we discuss are special examples of a much wider class of population models that one might utilize to investigate potential agents for use in attacks, such as viruses, bacteria, fungi and other chemical, biochemical or radiological agents. These include general epidemiological models such as SIR infectious

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