The Importance of Natural Variability in Lake Areas on the Detection of Permafrost Degradation: A Case Study in the Yukon Flats, Alaska

Long-term lake area change has previously been measured to detect the temporal rate and spatial extent of permafrost degradation. However, the natural intra- and interannual variability of lake areas has not been considered explicitly and quantitatively, which can substantially interfere with the detection of long-term lake area change associated with permafrost degradation. In order to better understand the natural background variability of lake areas, we used Landsat 7 images obtained on 11 dates from 1999 to 2002 to quantify the intra- and interannual lake area variability for a 4224 km 2 study area within the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Total lake areas ranged from 179 km 2 (22 August 1999) to 326 km 2 (6 June 2000). Even within a single year (year 2000), the total lake area decreased by 42 per cent from 6 June to 16 August, well exceeding the previously reported trends for long-term decrease (14% and 18%) for the Yukon Flats. Both intra- and interannual area variability in August and September were smaller than in June and July, suggesting that images from later in summer are more reliable for detecting long-term change in lake area. Variability of no-closure lakes was twice that of closed-basin lakes. Intra-annual area changes in closed-basin lakes can be explained by the intra-annual water balance, defined as cumulative precipitation minus evaporation between two consecutivedateswithinthesameyear.Foragivenperiod,thetotallakeareawascorrelatedmorestronglywiththewater balance since the preceding October than with the water balance in the preceding 12 months. Spatial heterogeneity in the intra-annual area change of individual lakes was observed, which might be caused by different topographical, geological and permafrost characteristics around and beneath the lakes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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