A scenario-based optimization frame to adjust current strategy for population- economy-resource-environment harmony in an urban agglomeration, China

Abstract This study developed a framework incorporating compatibility comparison, uncertain optimization model and scenario analysis (COS) for generating a comprehensive strategy associated with adjusting population employment structure based on industrial transformation (APEI), resource-environmental regulation and technique improvement from the respective of policymaker / government, to confront the hybrid challenge from economic development, resource crisis and environment problem in urban agglomerations (UA). In this COS framework, a Gini coefficient method is used for evaluating the compatibility of resource-environment consumption per unit employed population, which can reflect the current equal or compatible levels between socioeconomic development and resource-environment capacity in various regions in BTHU. Meanwhile, a scenario-based fuzzy-stochastic method with Laplace criterion (SFSL) is embedded into optimization model to handle multiple uncertainties. The developed COS framework has been applied to a real study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHU), China, which is facilitate for the generation of various results (such as population employment structure based on industrial transformation, resource-deficit, excessive emission and economic viability) under scenarios. The obtained results can support a comprehensive strategy for improving the harmony of population, economy, resource and environment in an urban agglomeration.