Abstract. A major function of financial statement analysis is to assess the risk of financial distress. Since Beaver's (1966) and Altaian's (1968) pioneering works, voluminous studies have been devoted to exploring the use of accounting information in predicting business failure. We apply survival analysis to study a class of financial distress when a financial analyst can identify an event that sets off the dynamic process of business adversity and would like to find out how long a firm can endure the adversity. We use the case of the oil and gas industry during the turmoil of the early 1980s and apply survival analysis to study how long a firm can endure this drastic oil price decline before facing financial distress. Our results indicate that the liquidity ratio, leverage ratio, operating cash flows, success in exploration, age, and size are significant factors affecting corporate endurance.
Resume. Une fonction majeure de l'analyse des etats financiers consiste a evaluer le risque de difficultes financieres. Depuis les travaux d'amorce de Beaver et Altman, de volumineuses etudes ont ete consacrees a l'analyse approfondie de l'utilisation de l'information comptable dans la prediction des faillites d'entreprises. Les auteurs appliquent l'analyse de survie a l'etude d'une categorie de difficultes financieres pour laquelle l'analyste financier parvient a determiner un evenement qui declenche le processus dynamique des difficultes de l'entreprise et aimerait determiner pendant combien de temps cette derniere pourra resister a ces difficultes. Les auteurs evoquent le cas du secteur petrolier et gazier au cours de la periode tumultueuse du debut des annees 80 et appliquent l'analyse de survie a l'etude du temps pendant lequel une entreprise pouvait resister a un declin radical du prix du petrole avant d'eprouver des difficultes financieres. Les resultats de l'etude demontrent que le ratio de liquidite, le ratio de levier, les flux monetaires provenant de l'exploitation, le succes des activites d'exploration, l'âge et la taille de l'entreprise sont des facteurs importants qui influent sur sa resistance.
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