Physico-Chemical Model of Toxic Substances in the Great Lakes

A physico-chemical model of the fate of toxic substances in the Great Lakes is constructed from mass balance principles, incorporating principal mechanisms of paniculate sorption-desorption, sediment-water and atmosphere-water interactions, and chemical and biochemical decay. The steady state mass balance model of the suspended solids in the open lake water yields net solids loss rates from 0.02 mjdfor Saginaw Bay to 1.22 m/dfor Lake Ontario. Calibration of the toxic model is through comparison to plutonium-239 data collected in the 1970s using a 23-year time variable calculation. The results indicate that, in general, the sediments are interactive with the water column in the Great Lakes through resuspension and horizontal transport. Fifty percent response times of 239Pu following a cessation of load extend beyond 10 years with sediment resuspension. The calibrated model was also applied to polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) using a high and low estimate of contemporary external load and with and without volatilization. The lower load level (lake range 640 to 1,390 kg/yr) with volatilization (at an exchange rate of 0.1 m/d) appears to be more representative of observed surface sediment data for the open lake waters. Calculated water column concentrations for the lower load level with and without volatilization ranged from 0.25 to 0.90 ng/Lfor open lake waters. Fifty percent response times for PCB following cessation of load varied from less than 5 years when volatilization was included to 10 to 20 years without volatilization. Comparison of these response times to decline of concentrations of PCB in Lake Michigan bloaters indicates that, at least for that lake, volatilization is occurring at an exchange rate of about 0.1 m/d.

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