Perspective: The Applicability of Percolation Theory to Innovation

The spread of innovation is usually characterized as a diffusion process. This article suggests that there may be some value in viewing this important phenomenon in terms of the mathematical construct known as percolation theory. J. Mort writes that phenomena and concepts such as induction periods, critical percolation thresholds, discrete propagation media, site coordination, clusters, and connective constants all have remarkable analogs in the generally observed features of product innovation. This phenomenological perspective, in which the customer emerges naturally as the controlling factor in the spread of innovations, may account for specific marketing approaches that have facilitated successful innovations such as the Xerox 914 copier. The approach may prove especially relevant in describing the spread of certain information, communication-based innovations, such as the explosive growth in facsimile (FAX), and other network-based products, as the utility and value of such products to the customer is inherently linked to the extant degree of connectivity.