Probabilistic safety assessment research based on Bayesian networks

According to the deficiency of event tree/fault tree analysis,a new probablilistic safety assessmet method based on Bayesian networks is proposed.The event trees and fault trees are mapped into Bayesian networks and the general safety analysis results and other useful information can be obtained for reasoning and diagnosis.The new method can deal with multi-state,dependency,non-monotonic and uncertainty correlations in safety analysis.The comparison with event tree/fault tree and BDD(binary decision digram)-based methods are carried out by means of an example of gas leak accident of oil well platform taken from literature,which demonstrates the effectivness of the method.