Subjectively Weighted Development Scenarios for Urban Allocation: A Case Study of South East Queensland

This article presents a GIS-based methodology to integrate a measure of geographic attractiveness of localities in the process of allocating potential dwellings in the context of a large urban region. The methodology was developed for a study area in Brisbane-South East Queensland (SEQ), known as the Sunbelt Region, a rapidly growing region and a popular tourist destination in Australia. In this article, we have used a multivariate technique to develop a set of parameterised linear equations to define underlying dimensions that drive residential location decision choices. Aesthetic and accessibility factors were identified in the factor analysis from data collected via a survey of Quality of Life. Spatial measures were based on a combination of network distance and kernel density estimation to calculate 'aesthetic' and 'accessibility' scenarios, which were then overlaid and multiplied by their subjective weights to create an 'overall attractiveness scenario'. These development scenarios were integrated as a set of criteria to control the allocation of potential dwelling capacity over the next 25 years at a grid cell level.

[1]  P. Waddell.  UrbanSim: Modeling Urban Development for Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Planning , 2002 .

[2]  Rolf Moeckel,et al.  Microsimulation of Urban Land Use , 2002 .

[3]  Mingche M. Li,et al.  Micro-Neighborhood Externalities and Hedonic Housing Prices , 1980 .

[4]  Debbie A. Niemeier,et al.  Measuring Accessibility: An Exploration of Issues and Alternatives , 1997 .

[5]  S. Hoshino.  Statistical Analysis of Land-use Change and Driving Forces in the Kansai District, Japan , 1996 .

[6]  F. Wu,et al.  Simulation of Land Development through the Integration of Cellular Automata and Multicriteria Evaluation , 1998 .

[7]  Second Edition,et al.  Statistical Package for the Social Sciences , 1970 .

[8]  V. Dokmeci,et al.  Residential-location preferences according to demographic characteristics in Istanbul , 2000 .

[9]  Geoffrey J. D. Hewings,et al.  Integrated Urban Models , 1985 .

[10]  A. Veldkamp,et al.  CLUE-CR: An integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica , 1996 .

[11]  J. Landis.  The California Urban Futures Model: A New Generation of Metropolitan Simulation Models , 1994 .

[12]  M. Wegener.  Operational Urban Models State of the Art , 1994 .

[13]  Robert J. Bennett,et al.  Mathematical methods in human geography and planning , 1985 .

[14]  Peter Hall,et al.  Von Thünen's Isolated state : an English edition of Der Isolierte Staat , 1967 .

[15]  P. Torrens,et al.  Cellular Automata and Urban Simulation: Where Do We Go from Here? , 2001 .

[16]  Natural resources and open space in the residential decision process: a study of recent movers to fringe counties in southeast Michigan , 2004 .

[17]  F. Martínez.  MUSSA: Land Use Model for Santiago City , 1996 .

[18]  Keith C. Clarke,et al.  Loose-Coupling a Cellular Automaton Model and GIS: Long-Term Urban Growth Prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore , 1998, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[19]  Roger White,et al.  Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns , 1993 .

[20]  Helen Couclelis,et al.  From Cellular Automata to Urban Models: New Principles for Model Development and Implementation , 1997 .

[21]  Tomas de la Barra.  Integrated Land Use and Transport Modelling: Contents , 1989 .

[22]  John Douglas Hunt,et al.  The MEPLAN models of Bilbao, Leeds and Dortmund , 1990 .

[23]  Martin Bell,et al.  Forecasting the pattern of urban growth with PUP: a web-based model interfaced with GIS and 3D animation , 2000 .

[24]  Pierre Filion,et al.  Neighbourhood Land Use and Performance: The Evolution of Neighbourhood Morphology over the 20th Century , 2003 .

[25]  A. Anas,et al.  General Equilibrium Models of Polycentric Urban Land Use with Endogenous Congestion and Job Agglomeration , 1996 .

[26]  Frank Southworth,et al.  A TECHNICAL REVIEW OF URBAN LAND USE: TRANSPORTATION MODELS AS TOOLS FOR EVALUATING VEHICLE TRAVEL REDUCTION STRATEGIES , 1995 .

[27]  J. Radke,et al.  An Application of Linear Programming and Geographic Information Systems: Cropland Allocation in Antigua , 1992 .

[28]  G. Ducot,et al.  A typology for scenarios , 1980 .

[29]  B. Silverman.  Density estimation for statistics and data analysis , 1986 .

[30]  M. Batty,et al.  Diffusion-limited aggregation and the fractal nature of urban growth , 1989 .

[31]  C. D. Harris,et al.  The Nature of Cities , 1945, The Urban Geography Reader.

[32]  D. R. Ingram.  The concept of accessibility: A search for an operational form , 1971 .

[33]  Fulong Wu.  A parameterised urban cellular model combining spontaneous and self-organising growth , 2000 .

[34]  M. Batty,et al.  Geometric accessibility and geographic information: extending desktop GIS to space syntax , 1999, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems.

[35]  F. Martínez.  TOWARDS A LAND-USE AND TRANSPORT INTERACTION FRAMEWORK. IN: HANDBOOK OF TRANSPORT MODELLING , 2007 .

[36]  J. Bouma,et al.  Quantifying the spatial structure of land use change: an integrated approach , 1997 .

[37]  Prem Chhetri,et al.  Modelling the Factors of Neighbourhood Attractiveness Reflected in Residential Location Decision Choices , 2006 .

[38]  Eric J. Miller,et al.  Current operational urban land‐use–transport modelling frameworks: A review , 2005 .

[39]  Ryuichi Kitamura,et al.  Generation of Synthetic Daily Activity-Travel Patterns , 1997 .

[40]  K. Haynes,et al.  Gravity and Spatial Interaction Models , 1985 .

[41]  A. Kliskey.  Recreation terrain suitability mapping: a spatially explicit methodology for determining recreation potential for resource use assessment , 2000 .

[42]  Alan Wilson.  Urban and regional models in geography and planning , 1974 .

[43]  Jian Xie,et al.  Environmental policy analysis , 1996 .

[44]  Ming Zhang,et al.  The Second Generation of the California Urban Futures Model. Part 2: Specification and Calibration Results of the Land-Use Change Submodel , 1998 .

[45]  Rolph E. Anderson,et al.  Multivariate Data Analysis with Readings , 1979 .

[46]  Michael Batty,et al.  Possible Urban Automata , 1997 .

[47]  John Douglas Hunt,et al.  Theory and Application of an Integrated Land-Use and Transport Modelling Framework , 1993 .

[48]  Stan C. M. Geertman,et al.  GIS and Models of Accessibility Potential: An Application in Planning , 1995, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[49]  I. S. Lowry.  A model of metropolis , 1964 .

[50]  W. Alonso.  Location and Land Use: Toward a General Theory of Land Rent , 1966 .

[51]  Juval Portugali,et al.  Artificial Planning Experience by Means of a Heuristic Cell-Space Model: Simulating International Migration in the Urban Process , 1995 .

[52]  B. Tabachnick,et al.  Using Multivariate Statistics , 1983 .