Future Urban States: A Field Anomaly Relaxation Study

Abstract : The Field Anomaly Relaxation Method (FAR) has been used to derive a set of plausible future urban states. The data was obtained from three two-day workshops involving DSTO staff, military, and academic staff from South Australian universities. An analysis of the results of these workshops identified six key sectors for urban function (each with three generic factors or levels) that could be used to characterise current and future urban environments namely: social behaviour, urban security, governance, societal equity, human and physical welfare and economic prosperity. From this data, 40 possible urban configurations were derived, which were further grouped into 16 scenario clusters. A Faustian Tree was constructed showing possible transitions between the future urban scenarios. The tree clearly broke down into two distinct areas, depending on whether the social behaviour was in a state of tolerant co-existence or intolerant co-existence/societal breakdown. A simple analysis was conducted to evaluate each cluster in terms of urban stability and hence identify urban precincts of interest. The relative probability of different migration pathways between urban states within the Faustian Tree was also investigated. The data generated in this study provides a simple high-level model of the urban environment, with potential applications ranging from urban scenario development (for wargaming) to a study of potential urban evolution (for strategic planning).