Collapse of Classic Maya Civilization Related to Modest Reduction in Precipitation

How Dry They Were How much rainfall failure contributed to the disintegration of classical Maya civilization? Medina-Elizalde and Rohling (p. 956) analyzed records from three lakes and a stalagmite from the Yucatán Peninsula to quantify the change in precipitation that the region experienced between 800 to 1000 years A.D. Precipitation decreased episodically for up to a decade at a time and in total by as much as 40% during the 200 years of the civilization's fall, probably as a result of a reduction in summer tropical storm rainfall. This finding highlights the sensitivity of this region to modest reductions of rainfall that are projected by some climate model. The fall of Maya civilization occurred over two centuries when droughts reduced precipitation by up to 40 percent annually. The disintegration of the Classic Maya civilization in the Yucatán Peninsula and Central America was a complex process that occurred over an approximately 200-year interval and involved a catastrophic depopulation of the region. Although it is well established that the civilization collapse coincided with widespread episodes of drought, their nature and severity remain enigmatic. We present a quantitative analysis that offers a coherent interpretation of four of the most detailed paleoclimate records of the event. We conclude that the droughts occurring during the disintegration of the Maya civilization represented up to a 40% reduction in annual precipitation, probably due to a reduction in summer season tropical storm frequency and intensity.

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