Projection of land use pattern in India: a Markov chain approach

The study examines the structural changes in land utilization pattern and shifting of area among different land use classes in India. Area shares are projected for the year 2020 for India, using Markov chain analysis. Decadal changes in the share of land use classes and land use ecological groups estimated for the period 1950-51 to 2006-07. Results indicate that the share of area under nonagricultural uses has increased significantly, while area under barren land, waste land and miscellaneous trees class has declined during entire period of study. The share of net sown area drastically increased during pre-Green Revolution period (1950-51 to 1967-68) from 41 to 45 percent to reported area for land utilization, but showed constant share about 46 percent since Green Revolution period. The share of land under non-agricultural uses has increased about three times during entire period of study. The projection of different land use classes and the groups indicated that the area under agricultural sector would stagnate while area under non-agricultural uses would increase significantly by 2020. The increase in area under non-agricultural uses comes from agricultural sector (over 5%). To meet the target of foodgrains demand in 2021-22, substantial yield improvement is necessary and this will also increase, if consider the future shift in area from food crops to fruits and vegetables and conversion of agricultural land into non-agricultural uses. The shift in area from agriculture and ecological sectors to non-agricultural sector needs to be arrested through perspective land use planning as this has negative implications for food security and agricultural sustainability.