Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers
暂无分享,去创建一个
Luigi Ponti | Alessandro Dell'Aquila | Andrew Paul Gutierrez | P. Ruti | A. Gutierrez | L. Ponti | A. Dell’Aquila | Paolo Michele Ruti
[1] M. Araújo,et al. Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change , 2005 .
[2] J. Infante-Amate. The Ecology and History of the Mediterranean Olive Grove: The Spanish Great Expansion, 1750 - 2000 , 2012, Rural History.
[3] A. Gutierrez. Applied Population Ecology: A Supply-Demand Approach , 1996 .
[4] Louis N. Gray,et al. Measurement of Relative Variation: Sociological Examples , 1971 .
[5] Jeremy S. Pal,et al. An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation , 2010 .
[6] M. Cunha,et al. Quantitative forecasting of olive yield in Northern Portugal using a bioclimatic model , 2008 .
[7] Leo Stroosnijder,et al. OLIVERO: the project analysing the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.
[8] P. Rey. Spatio‐Temporal Variation in Fruit and Frugivorous Bird Abundance in Olive Orchards , 1995 .
[9] A. Gutierrez,et al. Eradication of Invasive Species: Why the Biology Matters , 2013, Environmental entomology.
[10] W. Thuiller,et al. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. , 2005, Ecology letters.
[11] Reza Ghezelbash,et al. Evaluating biological control of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) in California: A GIS based supply–demand demographic model , 2005 .
[12] C. Hervás,et al. Biometeorological and autoregressive indices for predicting olive pollen intensity , 2013, International Journal of Biometeorology.
[13] F. Krausmann,et al. Diet, trade and land use: a socio-ecological analysis of the transformation of the olive oil system , 2011 .
[14] M. White,et al. How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates , 2010 .
[15] Miguel B. Araújo,et al. Using species co-occurrence networks to assess the impacts of climate change , 2011 .
[16] A. Dobson,et al. Metabolic approaches to understanding climate change impacts on seasonal host-macroparasite dynamics. , 2013, Ecology letters.
[17] W. Thuiller,et al. Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. , 2009, Ecology.
[18] Travis J. Lybbert,et al. An Elixir for Development? Olive Oil Policies and Poverty Alleviation in the Middle East and North Africa , 2013 .
[19] C. Galán,et al. Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain) , 2010, International journal of biometeorology.
[20] Ana Iglesias,et al. A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain , 2009 .
[21] F. Giorgi,et al. Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations , 2005 .
[22] Nicolas Schtickzelle,et al. Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing the response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. , 2013, The Journal of animal ecology.
[23] S. Schreiber,et al. Biological and economic foundations of renewable resource exploitation , 1998 .
[24] C. Galán,et al. Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis , 2009 .
[25] Salvatore Manfreda,et al. The olive tree: a paradigm for drought tolerance in Mediterranean climates , 2007 .
[26] M. Arriaza,et al. Adoption of conservation agriculture in olive groves: Evidences from southern Spain , 2013 .
[27] S. Gualdi,et al. THE CIRCE SIMULATIONS Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea , 2013 .
[28] James H. Brown,et al. Effects of size and temperature on developmental time , 2002, Nature.
[29] C. Galán,et al. Forecasting olive (Olea europaea) crop yield based on pollen emission , 2004 .
[30] Kelly M. Cobourn,et al. Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function , 2011 .
[31] L. Fleskens. A typology of sloping and mountainous olive plantation systems to address natural resources management , 2008 .
[32] M. Waelkens,et al. Modern and ancient olive stands near Sagalassos (south-west Turkey) and reconstruction of the ancient agricultural landscape in two valleys , 2003 .
[33] Mathieu Marmion,et al. Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability , 2012 .
[34] B. Petitpierre,et al. Response to Comment on “Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders” , 2012, Science.
[35] Marco Bindi,et al. Olive trees as bio-indicators of climate evolution in the Mediterranean Basin , 2013 .
[36] J. Pierre,et al. A Novel Rate Model of Temperature-Dependent Development for Arthropods , 1999 .
[37] W. Thuiller. Biodiversity: Climate change and the ecologist , 2007, Nature.
[38] David Zilberman,et al. The Econometrics of Damage Control: Why Specification Matters , 1986 .
[39] Stephen Emmott,et al. Ecosystems: Time to model all life on Earth , 2013, Nature.
[40] Peter D. Wilson,et al. Does the choice of climate baseline matter in ecological niche modelling , 2010 .
[41] J. B. Thornes,et al. Mediterranean desertification: a mosaic of processes and responses , 2002 .
[42] Isabelle Chuine,et al. Sensitivity analysis of the tree distribution model Phenofit to climatic input characteristics: implications for climate impact assessment , 2005 .
[43] B. Romano,et al. Yield Forecasting for Olive Trees: A New Approach in a Historical Series (Umbria, Central Italy) , 2005 .
[44] G. Psarras,et al. Water relations, physiological behavior and antioxidant defence mechanism of olive plants subjected to different irrigation regimes , 2013 .
[45] J. Graaff,et al. The future of olive groves on sloping land and ex-ante assessment of cross compliance for erosion control , 2010 .
[46] D. S. Koveos. Rapid cold hardening in the olive fruit fly Bactrocera oleae under laboratory and field conditions , 2001 .
[47] James H. Brown,et al. Effects of Size and Temperature on Metabolic Rate , 2001, Science.
[48] E. Fereres,et al. The Physiology of Adaptation and Yield Expression in Olive , 2010 .
[49] Tom Vanwalleghem,et al. Erosion in the Mediterranean: The Case of Olive Groves in the South of Spain (1752–2000) , 2013, Environmental History.
[50] J. Morison,et al. Interactions between increasing CO2 concentration and temperature on plant growth , 1999 .
[51] M. Kearney,et al. Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy , 2012 .
[52] Jorge Soberón,et al. Niches and distributional areas: Concepts, methods, and assumptions , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[53] D. L. Le Maitre,et al. Comment on “Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders” , 2012, Science.
[54] R. Mittermeier,et al. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities , 2000, Nature.
[55] G. Mace,et al. Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate , 2011, Science.
[56] M. Visser,et al. Predicting species distribution and abundance responses to climate change: why it is essential to include biotic interactions across trophic levels , 2010, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[57] Luuk Fleskens,et al. Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.
[58] A. Frary,et al. Genetic Diversity of Turkish Olive Varieties Assessed by Simple Sequence Repeat and Sequence-Related Amplified Polymorphism Markers , 2011 .
[59] Paul C. Struik,et al. Functional-Structural Plant Modelling in Crop Production , 2007 .
[60] Victoria J. Hodge,et al. A Survey of Outlier Detection Methodologies , 2004, Artificial Intelligence Review.
[61] Sebastian J. Schreiber,et al. A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED TRITROPHIC PERSPECTIVE ON BOTTOM-UP-TOP-DOWN REGULATION OF POPULATIONS' , 1994 .
[62] A. P. Gutierrez,et al. MULTITROPHIC MODELS OF PREDATOR–PREY ENERGETICS: I. AGE-SPECIFIC ENERGETICS MODELS—PEA APHID ACYRTHOSIPHON PISUM (HOMOPTERA: APHIDIDAE) AS AN EXAMPLE , 1984, The Canadian Entomologist.
[63] Antoine Guisan,et al. Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders , 2012, Science.
[64] N. Jones,et al. Traditional olive orchards on sloping land: sustainability or abandonment? , 2008, Journal of environmental management.
[65] David K. Skelly,et al. Biotic Multipliers of Climate Change , 2012, Science.
[66] Simone Orlandini,et al. Effect of agrometeorological parameters on the phenology of pollen emission and production of olive trees (Olea europea L.) , 2001 .
[67] F. Giorgi,et al. Climate change hot‐spots , 2006 .
[68] A. Gutierrez. Physiological Basis of Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Theory: The Metabolic Pool Model as a Paradigm , 1992 .
[69] J. Morales,et al. Forecasting olive crop production based on ten consecutive years of monitoring airborne pollen in Andalusia (southern Spain) , 1998 .
[70] J. Goudriaan,et al. Simulation of Ecological Processes , 1978 .
[71] Cedric E. Ginestet. ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis , 2011 .
[72] P. A. Moore,et al. The ecology of Aphis craccivora Koch and Subterranean Clover Stunt Virus in south-east Australia. III. A regional perspective of the phenology and migration of the cowpea aphid. , 1974 .
[73] N. Ramankutty,et al. Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000 , 2008 .
[74] Brendan A. Wintle,et al. Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change , 2010 .
[75] C. Giourga,et al. Olive groves: ``The life and identity of the Mediterranean'' , 2003 .
[76] H. Severin. Fruit-Flies of Economic Importance in California , 1917 .
[77] Eugenio Domínguez-Vilches,et al. Modeling Olive Crop Yield in Andalusia, Spain , 2008 .
[78] M. G. Molina,et al. The Socio-Ecological Transition on a Crop Scale: The Case of Olive Orchards in Southern Spain (1750–2000) , 2013 .
[79] K. Mathiopoulos,et al. Organophosphate resistance in olive fruit fly, Bactrocera oleae, populations in Greece and Cyprus. , 2007, Pest management science.
[80] W. D. Kissling,et al. The role of biotic interactions in shaping distributions and realised assemblages of species: implications for species distribution modelling , 2012, Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.
[81] C. Xiloyannis,et al. Semi-intensive olive orchards on sloping land: requiring good land husbandry for future development. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.
[82] J. Elith,et al. Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time , 2009 .
[83] B. Otto‐Bliesner,et al. No‐analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st‐century predictions by species distribution models , 2012 .
[84] D. Wardle,et al. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Species Gains and Losses , 2011, Science.
[85] Markus Neteler,et al. Open Source GIS: A GRASS GIS Approach , 2007 .
[86] P. Hulme,et al. Integrating trait‐ and niche‐based approaches to assess contemporary evolution in alien plant species , 2013 .
[87] Luigi Ponti,et al. Effects of climate warming on Olive and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin)) in California and Italy , 2009 .
[88] J. Graaff,et al. Financial consequences of cross-compliance and flat-rate-per-ha subsidies: The case of olive farmers on sloping land , 2011 .
[89] Steven I. Higgins,et al. A niche for biology in species distribution models , 2012 .
[90] B. Romano,et al. A new approach to consider the pollen variable in forecasting yield models , 2008, Economic Botany.
[91] O. Gordo,et al. Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems , 2010 .
[92] B. Romano,et al. A comparison among olive flowering trends in different Mediterranean areas (south-central Italy) in relation to meteorological variations , 2009 .
[93] Brendan A. Wintle,et al. Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change , 2011 .
[94] Marco Bindi,et al. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2°C global warming , 2009 .
[95] C. Plutzar,et al. Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change , 2012 .
[96] F. Moreno,et al. Water Use by the Olive Tree , 1999 .
[97] N. Holst,et al. A physiologically based model of pest–natural enemy interactions , 1997, Experimental & Applied Acarology.
[98] E. Eccel,et al. Projecting the impacts of climate change on the phenology of grapevine in a mountain area , 2011 .
[99] M. Araújo,et al. Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change , 2005 .
[100] J. Renfrew. Palaeoethnobotany: The Prehistoric Food Plants of the Near East and Europe , 1973 .
[101] J. Blondel. The ‘Design’ of Mediterranean Landscapes: A Millennial Story of Humans and Ecological Systems during the Historic Period , 2006 .
[102] N Oreskes,et al. Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences , 1994, Science.
[103] C. Rosenzweig,et al. Handbook of climate change and agroecosystems : impacts, adaptation, and mitigation , 2010 .
[104] J. Martínez-Paz,et al. Technical, quality and environmental efficiency of the olive oil industry , 2011 .
[105] J. Tobias,et al. Species interactions constrain geographic range expansion over evolutionary time. , 2013, Ecology letters.
[106] C. A. Howell,et al. Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[107] John Vansickle,et al. Attrition in Distributed Delay Models , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.
[108] Stem and whole-plant hydraulics in olive (Olea europaea) and kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) , 2013, Trees.
[109] M. Araújo,et al. The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change , 2007 .
[110] M. Cunha,et al. Influence of meteorological parameters on Olea flowering date and airborne pollen concentration in four regions of Portugal , 2006 .
[111] M. Cunha,et al. Improving early-season estimates of olive production using airborne pollen multi-sampling sites , 2007 .
[112] A. Ellison,et al. A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming. , 2012, Ecology.
[113] J. Kerr,et al. The Macroecological Contribution to Global Change Solutions , 2007, Science.
[114] P. Ruti,et al. Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region , 2012 .
[115] R. Steenwyk,et al. Prospects for integrated control of olive fruit fly are promising in California. , 2003 .
[116] D. Jacob,et al. Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models , 2012, Climate Dynamics.
[117] Luuk Fleskens,et al. Conserving natural resources in olive orchards on sloping land: Alternative goal programming approaches towards effective design of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures , 2010 .
[118] J. Lawton,et al. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming , 1998, Nature.
[119] M. Abdel-Razik,et al. A model of the productivity of olive trees under optional water and nutrient supply in desert conditions , 1989 .
[120] Andrew Paul Gutierrez,et al. An Analysis of Cotton Production in California: A Model for Acala Cotton and the Effects of Defoliators on its Yields , 1975 .
[121] M. Bindi,et al. Reproduction of olive tree habitat suitability for global change impact assessment , 2008 .
[122] A. Gutierrez,et al. Climate change effects on poikilotherm tritrophic interactions , 2008 .
[123] P. Tickle,et al. Global ecological zoning for the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 - Final report , 2001 .
[124] T. D. Mitchell,et al. Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe , 2005, Science.
[125] P. Hulme. Consistent flowering response to global warming by European plants introduced into North America. , 2011 .
[126] J. Bascompte,et al. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. , 2008, Ecology letters.
[127] Dan L Warren,et al. In defense of 'niche modeling'. , 2012, Trends in ecology & evolution.
[128] A. Peterson,et al. The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling , 2011 .
[129] Brian J. McGill,et al. Can niche-based distribution models outperform spatial interpolation? , 2007 .
[130] Heidrun Schumann,et al. Task-Driven Color Coding , 2008, 2008 12th International Conference Information Visualisation.
[131] Wilfried Thuiller,et al. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models , 2008, Biology Letters.
[132] George E. Haniotakis,et al. Olive pest control: present status and prospects. , 2005 .
[133] F. Giorgi,et al. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region , 2008 .
[134] C. Galán,et al. Aerobiological and meteorological factors’ influence on olive (Olea europaea L.) crop yield in Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain) , 2008 .
[135] A. Gutierrez,et al. A coffee agroecosystem model: I. Growth and development of the coffee plant , 2011 .
[136] T. Kizos,et al. Farmers’ attitudes and landscape change: evidence from the abandonment of terraced cultivations on Lesvos, Greece , 2010 .
[137] K. Watt,et al. A Mathematical Model for the Effect of Densities of Attacked and Attacking Species on the Number Attacked , 1959, The Canadian Entomologist.
[138] Marco Bindi,et al. Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale , 2011 .
[139] R. Sutherst,et al. Including species interactions in risk assessments for global change , 2007 .
[140] Glenn Marion,et al. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for process‐oriented population and distribution models: data, statistics and the niche , 2012 .
[141] J. Palutikof,et al. Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. , 2007 .
[142] A. Bruggeman,et al. Effect of water harvesting on growth of young olive trees in degraded Syrian dryland , 2009 .
[143] M. Sykes,et al. Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change , 2006 .
[144] A. Gutierrez,et al. Climate warming effects on the Olea europaea–Bactrocera oleae system in Mediterranean islands: Sardinia as an example , 2009 .
[145] Diemuth E. Pemsl,et al. The Economics of Biotechnology under Ecosystem Disruption , 2006 .
[146] D. Zohary,et al. Beginnings of Fruit Growing in the Old World , 1975, Science.
[147] A. Gutierrez,et al. MULTITROPHIC MODELS OF PREDATOR–PREY ENERGETICS: III. A CASE STUDY IN AN ALFALFA ECOSYSTEM , 1984, The Canadian Entomologist.
[148] D. Pasternak,et al. Combating Desertification with Plants , 2001, Springer US.
[149] N. Diffenbaugh,et al. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble , 2012, Climatic Change.
[150] Orlandi Fabio,et al. Yield modelling in a Mediterranean species utilizing cause–effect relationships between temperature forcing and biological processes , 2010 .
[151] N Oreskes,et al. Evaluation (not validation) of quantitative models. , 1998, Environmental health perspectives.
[152] T. Dawson,et al. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? , 2003 .