Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players

Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify “hot topic” terms. We then use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at frontiers in a target R&D domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper presents illustrative results for example topics – Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.

[1]  Wolfgang Glänzel,et al.  Using ‘core documents’ for detecting and labelling new emerging topics , 2011, Scientometrics.

[2]  Ellen Moors,et al.  Exploring emerging technologies using metaphors--a study of orphan drugs and pharmacogenomics. , 2008, Social science & medicine.

[3]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Capturing new developments in an emerging technology: an updated search strategy for identifying nanotechnology research outputs , 2013, Scientometrics.

[4]  Ludo Waltman,et al.  A new methodology for constructing a publication-level classification system of science , 2012, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol..

[5]  Chao-Chan Wu,et al.  Using patent analyses to monitor the technological trends in an emerging field of technology: a case of carbon nanotube field emission display , 2009, Scientometrics.

[6]  J. D. Haan,et al.  How emergence arises , 2006 .

[7]  Yongtae Park,et al.  Monitoring the organic structure of technology based on the patent development paths , 2009 .

[8]  William M. Pottenger,et al.  A Survey of Emerging Trend Detection in Textual Data Mining , 2004 .

[9]  Douglas K. R. Robinson,et al.  Characterizing the emergence of a technological field: Expectations, agendas and networks in Lab-on-a-chip technologies , 2006, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[10]  T. Kuhn,et al.  The Structure of Scientific Revolutions , 1963 .

[11]  J. Youtie,et al.  Refining search terms for nanotechnology , 2008 .

[12]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Forecasting and Management of Technology , 1991 .

[13]  Ying Guo,et al.  Nano-enabled drug delivery: a research profile. , 2014, Nanomedicine : nanotechnology, biology, and medicine.

[14]  Qi Wang,et al.  A bibliometric model for identifying emerging research topics , 2017, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol..

[15]  Xinwen Zhang,et al.  Measuring and visualizing the contributions of Chinese and American LIS research institutions to emerging themes and salient themes , 2015, Scientometrics.

[16]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  An indicator of technical emergence , 2018, Scientometrics.

[17]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  A measure of staying power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced by technical domain or scale? , 2017, Scientometrics.

[18]  Daniele Rotolo,et al.  Emerging Technology , 2001 .

[19]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Tech Mining: Exploiting New Technologies for Competitive Advantage , 2004 .

[20]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Technology opportunities analysis , 1995 .

[21]  Michael M. Hopkins,et al.  Just how difficult can it be counting up R&D funding for emerging technologies (and is tech mining with proxy measures going to be any better)? , 2013, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[22]  Bernd Carsten Stahl,et al.  What Does the Future Hold? A Critical View of Emerging Information and Communication Technologies and Their Social Consequences , 2011, Researching the Future in Information Systems.

[23]  H. Small,et al.  Identifying emerging topics in science and technology , 2014 .

[24]  Nils C. Newman,et al.  Emergence as a conceptual framework for understanding scientific and technological progress , 2012, 2012 Proceedings of PICMET '12: Technology Management for Emerging Technologies.

[25]  Hariolf Grupp,et al.  Tracing technological change over long periods in Germany in chemicals using patent statistics , 2003, Scientometrics.

[26]  Kwangsoo Kim,et al.  Identifying rapidly evolving technological trends for R&D planning using SAO-based semantic patent networks , 2011, Scientometrics.

[27]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  A systematic method to create search strategies for emerging technologies based on the Web of Science: illustrated for ‘Big Data’ , 2015, Scientometrics.

[28]  A. Porter,et al.  Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective , 2017 .

[29]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: a case study of 3D printing , 2017, Scientometrics.

[30]  Chaomei Chen,et al.  Web site design with the patron in mind: A step-by-step guide for libraries , 2006 .

[31]  M E J Newman,et al.  Community structure in social and biological networks , 2001, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[32]  Nils C. Newman,et al.  Measuring national ‘emerging technology’ capabilities , 2002 .

[33]  B. Martin.  Foresight in science and technology , 1995 .

[34]  Alan L. Porter,et al.  Empirically Informing a Technology Delivery System Model for an Emerging Technology: Illustrated for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells , 2012 .