Technology for Director Dubious: Evaluation and Decision in Public Contexts
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Abstract : This report examines the social, structural and organizational obstacles to the introduction of decision technology in public contexts, and summarizes two studies that suggest ways of overcoming these obstacles. As a means of defining the problem the report caricatures two Federal government policy-makers; Director Devious and Director Dubious. Director Devious wants to keep freedom of action. Director Dubious, though a skeptic about new technologies, recognizes the problem they address and is willing to give them a try. Two classes of technological tools are proposed. One technology, concerned with probability estimation and Bayesian inference, is illustrated by a study of the diagnostic value of x-rays. The other technology, concerned with measurement of social values, is illustrated by an application of a version of multiattribute utility measurement to selection of nuclear waste disposal sites. Both technologies are offered to Director Dubious as serious candidates for adaptation and use.
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