Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering

Abstract Risk analysis and decision-making procedures are being applied to large engineering projects with increasing frequency. Risk analysis is a versatile tool in decision-making, whether the decisions are in the form of an engineering design, selecting particular construction procedures, or more general decisions made by private or public entities. An overview of the basic aspects of risk analysis and decision-making are followed by a detailed discussion of three typical rock engineering applications: (1) slope design, (2) flow through fractured media, and (3) tunnelling. The paper includes examples from current tunnel projects (e.g., the Gotthard base tunnel, the Adler tunnel and the Lotschberg base tunnel).

[1]  R. Sturk,et al.  Risk and decision analysis for large underground projects, as applied to the Stockholm Ring Road tunnels , 1996 .

[2]  W. Dershowitz,et al.  Geometric Conceptual Models For Fractured Rock Masses: Implications For Groundwater Flow And Rock Deformation , 1993 .

[3]  A. M. Hasofer,et al.  Exact and Invariant Second-Moment Code Format , 1974 .

[4]  Y. S. Touloukian,et al.  Physical Properties of Rocks and Minerals , 1981 .

[5]  Gregory B. Baecher,et al.  The effect of discontinuity persistence on rock slope stability , 1983 .

[6]  O. Gregersen Landsomfattende kartlegging av kvikkleireområder i gang , 1984 .

[7]  Paul A. Witherspoon,et al.  A Model for Steady Fluid Flow in Random Three‐Dimensional Networks of Disc‐Shaped Fractures , 1985 .

[8]  Thomas J. Nicholson,et al.  Flow and transport through unsaturated fractured rock , 1987 .

[9]  John M. Marek,et al.  Probabilistic Analysis Of The Plane Shear Failure Mode , 1978 .

[10]  Hestir Kevin,et al.  Three dimensional modeling of fractures in rock; from data to a regionalized parent-daughter model , 1987 .

[11]  William Dershowitz,et al.  Rock joint systems , 1984 .

[12]  H. H. Einstein,et al.  Development of stochastic models for fracture systems , 1995 .

[13]  Mark Hing Chuen Chan A geological prediction and updating model in tunneling , 1981 .

[14]  H. H. Einstein,et al.  Geological Prediction And Updating In Tunneling - A Probabilistic Approach , 1981 .

[15]  Hebert H Einstein,et al.  RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE ADLER TUNNEL , 1994 .

[16]  Herbert H. Einstein,et al.  Characterizing rock joint geometry with joint system models , 1988 .

[17]  H. H. Einstein,et al.  Probability Of Kinematic Instability In Rock Slopes - A Numerical Approach , 1979 .

[18]  Gregory B. Baecher,et al.  Trace Length Biases In Joint Surveys , 1978 .

[19]  Herbert H. Einstein,et al.  Hierarchical fracture trace model , 1990 .

[20]  Herbert H. Einstein,et al.  Decision Support System for Tunneling , 1985 .

[21]  H. Baroudi,et al.  Bench stability in open pit mines : a methodology for jointed rock masses , 1992 .

[22]  Erik H. Vanmarcke,et al.  Methodology for Integrated Risk Assessment for Dams , 1981 .

[23]  Howard Raiffa,et al.  Applied Statistical Decision Theory. , 1961 .