MODELING MACRO SOCIAL CHANGE

This chapter presents a mathematical theory of social change; it pertains not to all forms of social change but rather to temporal changes in frequency distributions of persons within classifications defined by social roles and other social conditions. Since temporal changes in frequency distributions may depend on changes in transition rates, the latter necessarily are considered. The theory presented here is motivated by an interest in developing a modeling framework for the various annual or biennial

[1]  D. Cochrane,et al.  Application of Least Squares Regression to Relationships Containing Auto-Correlated Error Terms , 1949 .

[2]  W. Leontief,et al.  The Structure of American Economy, 1919-1939. , 1954 .

[3]  M. Spiegelman,et al.  Introduction to Demography. , 1956 .

[4]  Clifford Hildreth,et al.  Demand relations with autocorrelated disturbances. , 1960 .

[5]  S. Goldberg,et al.  Introduction to Difference Equations , 1958 .

[6]  J. Durbin Estimation of Parameters in Time‐Series Regression Models , 1960 .

[7]  H. Furstenberg,et al.  Products of Random Matrices , 1960 .

[8]  Denis Sargan,et al.  The maximun likelihood estimation of economic relationships with autoregressive residuals , 1961 .

[9]  N. Ryder Notes on the Concept of a Population , 1964, American Journal of Sociology.

[10]  R. Stone A model of the educational system , 1965 .

[11]  N. Ryder The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. , 1965, American sociological review.

[12]  W. R. Buckland,et al.  Econometric Models and Methods , 1967 .

[13]  T. Amemiya SPECIFICATION ANALYSIS IN THE ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS OF A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODEL , 1966 .

[14]  E. Hannan The estimation of a lagged regression relation. , 1967, Biometrika.

[15]  J Matras,et al.  Social mobility and social structure: some insights from the linear model. , 1967, American sociological review.

[16]  David R. Brillinger,et al.  Statistical Methods of Econometrics. , 1967 .

[17]  Kenneth S. Miller,et al.  Linear difference equations , 1968 .

[18]  H. Stekler Forecasting with Econometric Models: An Evaluation , 1968 .

[19]  Wilbert E. Moore,et al.  Indicators of Social Change: Concepts and Measurements , 1968 .

[20]  B. Gross,et al.  The state of the nation : social systems accounting , 1968 .

[21]  Quantitative economic theory : a synthetic approach , 1969 .

[22]  Edgar F. Borgatta,et al.  Sociological Methodology, 1969. , 1969 .

[23]  Gwilym M. Jenkins,et al.  Time series analysis, forecasting and control , 1972 .

[24]  Ray C. Fair,et al.  The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors , 1970 .

[25]  H. Theil Principles of econometrics , 1971 .

[26]  H. L. Bras Éléments pour une théorie des populations instables , 1971, Population.

[27]  E. Hannan,et al.  The estimation of mixed regression, autoregression, moving average and distributed lag models , 1972 .

[28]  Robert Schoen,et al.  Causes of death : life tables for national populations , 1972 .

[29]  Thomas H. Naylor,et al.  Box-Jenkins Methods: An Alternative to Econometric Models , 1972 .

[30]  R. L. Cooper The Predictive Performance of Quarterly Econometric Models of the United States , 1972 .

[31]  C. Nelson,et al.  Applied Time Series Analysis for Managerial Forecasting. , 1973 .

[32]  J. H Pollard,et al.  Mathematical Models for the Growth of Human Populations , 1973 .

[33]  T. Amemiya Generalized Least Squares with an Estimated Autocovariance Matrix , 1973 .

[34]  E. Hannan,et al.  Multiple Equation Systems with Stationary Errors , 1973 .

[35]  B. Hickman,et al.  Econometric models of cyclical behavior , 1973 .

[36]  A. C. Chiang Fundamental methods of mathematical economics , 1974 .

[37]  G. Treyz,et al.  Forecasts with quarterly macroeconometric models , 1974 .

[38]  Kenneth C. Land,et al.  Social Indicator Models , 1975 .

[39]  Social Indicators and Social Change: Elements of an Operational System , 1976 .

[40]  Burton H. Singer,et al.  The Representation of Social Processes by Markov Models , 1976, American Journal of Sociology.

[41]  Burton H. Singer,et al.  12 – Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys1 , 1976 .

[42]  J. Cohen Ergodicity of Age Structure in Populations with Markovian Vital Rates, I: Countable States , 1976 .

[43]  Kenneth C. Land,et al.  A General Framework for Building Dynamic Macro Social Indicator Models: Including an Analysis of Changes in Crime Rates and Police Expenditures , 1976, American Journal of Sociology.

[44]  Jan M. Hoem,et al.  The Statistical Theory of Demographic Rates A Review of Current Developments , 1976 .

[45]  J. Johnston,et al.  Econometric Methods, 2nd Ed. , 1976 .

[46]  Maurice G. Kendall,et al.  Time-Series. 2nd edn. , 1976 .

[47]  John G. Kemeny,et al.  Finite Markov chains , 1960 .

[48]  K. Land,et al.  A Social Indicator Model of Changes in the Occupational Structure of the United States: 1947-1974 , 1977 .

[49]  R. Kashyap,et al.  Dynamic Stochastic Models from Empirical Data. , 1977 .

[50]  Nathan Keyfitz,et al.  Applied Mathematical Demography , 1978 .

[51]  K. Land,et al.  Indicators and models of changes in the American occupational system, 1947–73 , 1977 .

[52]  M. Felson,et al.  Social demographic and economic interrelationships with educational trends in the United States 1947-1974. , 1978 .

[53]  G. Vigderhous FORECASTING SOCIOLOGICAL PHENOMENA: APPLICATION OF BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY TO SUICIDE RATES , 1978 .

[54]  Michael T. Hannan,et al.  Dynamic Analysis of Event Histories , 1979, American Journal of Sociology.

[55]  Lawrence E. Cohen,et al.  Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach , 1979 .

[56]  K. Land,et al.  A general algorithm for estimating a Markov-generated increment-decrement life table with applications to marital-status patterns. , 1979, Journal of the American Statistical Association.

[57]  Kenneth C. Land,et al.  A macrodynamic analysis of changes in mortality indexes in the United States, 1946–75: Some preliminary results , 1980 .

[58]  Demographic data and social indicators , 1980 .

[59]  Robert D. Mare,et al.  Sociological Methodology 1978 , 1980 .