Stochastic perturbations for parametrisation tendencies in a convection-permitting ensemble

Abstract. A modification of the widely used SPPT (Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies) scheme is proposed and tested in a Convection-permitting – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting system (C-LAEF) developed at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt fur Meteorologie und Geodynamik). The tendencies from four physical parametrisation schemes are perturbed: radiation, shallow convection, turbulence and microphysics. Whereas in SPPT the total model tendencies are perturbed, in the present approach (pSPPT hereinafter) the partial tendencies of the physics parametrisation schemes are sequentially perturbed. Thus, in pSPPT an interaction between the uncertainties of the different physics parametrisation schemes is sustained and a more physically consistent relationship between the processes is kept. Two configurations of pSPPT are evaluated over two months (one of summer and another of winter). Both schemes increase the stability of the model and lead to statistically significant improvements in the probabilistic performance compared to the original SPPT. An evaluation of selected test cases shows that the positive effect of stochastic physics is much more pronounced on days with high convective activity. Small discrepancies in the humidity analysis can be dedicated to the use of a very simple supersaturation adjustment. This and other adjustments are discussed to provide some suggestions for future investigations.

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