Asset Price Modeling: From Fractional to Multifractional Processes

This contribution surveys the main characteristics of two stochastic processes that generalize the fractional Brownian motion: the multifractional Brownian motion and the multifractional processes with random exponent. A special emphasis will be devoted to the meaning and to the applications that they can have in finance. If fractional Brownian motion is by now very well-known and studied as a model of the price dynamics, multifractional processes are yet widely unknown in the field of quantitative finance, mainly because of their nonstationarity. Nonetheless, in spite of their complex structure, such processes deserve consideration for their capability to seize the stylized facts that most of the current models cannot account for. In addition, their functional parameter provides an insightful and parsimonious interpretation of the market mechanism, and is able to unify in a single model two opposite approaches such as the theory of efficient markets and the behavioral finance.

[1]  Serge Cohen,et al.  From Self-Similarity to Local Self-Similarity: the Estimation Problem , 1999 .

[2]  Murad S. Taqqu,et al.  MULTIFRACTIONAL PROCESSES WITH RANDOM EXPONENT , 2005 .

[3]  Antoine Ayache,et al.  Continuous Gaussian Multifractional Processes with Random Pointwise Hölder Regularity , 2011, 1109.1617.

[4]  A cautionary note on the detection of multifractal scaling in finance and economics , 2005 .

[5]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[6]  Charles S. Tapiero,et al.  Risk Finance and Asset Pricing: Value, Measurements, and Markets , 2010 .

[7]  Gabriel Lang,et al.  Quadratic variations and estimation of the local Hölder index of a gaussian process , 1997 .

[8]  J. L. Véhel,et al.  On the identification of the pointwise Hölder exponent of the generalized multifractional Brownian motion , 2004 .

[9]  Laurent E. Calvet,et al.  A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns , 1997 .

[10]  Stéphane Jaffard,et al.  Identification of filtered white noises , 1998 .

[11]  R. Elliott,et al.  A General Fractional White Noise Theory And Applications To Finance , 2003 .

[12]  P. Guasoni NO ARBITRAGE UNDER TRANSACTION COSTS, WITH FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN MOTION AND BEYOND , 2006 .

[13]  S. Loutridis An algorithm for the characterization of time-series based on local regularity , 2007 .

[14]  Charles S. Tapiero,et al.  THE RANGE INTER-EVENT PROCESS IN A SYMMETRIC BIRTH DEATH RANDOM WALK , 2001 .

[15]  Modelling stock price movements: multifractality or multifractionality? , 2007 .

[16]  Ravi Bansal,et al.  Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles , 2000 .

[17]  A. Yaglom Stationary Gaussian Processes Satisfying the Strong Mixing Condition and Best Predictable Functionals , 1965 .

[18]  F. Eugene FAMA, . Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance, Journal of Financial Economics . , 1998 .

[19]  J. Campbell,et al.  By Force of Habit: A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[20]  Cheng-Few Lee,et al.  Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): Past, Present and Future , 2008 .

[21]  Jacques Lévy Véhel,et al.  The covariance structure of multifractional Brownian motion, with application to long range dependence , 2000, 2000 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing. Proceedings (Cat. No.00CH37100).

[22]  J. Lamperti Semi-stable stochastic processes , 1962 .

[23]  R. Peltier,et al.  Multifractional Brownian Motion : Definition and Preliminary Results , 1995 .

[24]  Burton G. Malkiel,et al.  Efficient Market Hypothesis , 1991 .

[25]  L. Rogers Arbitrage with Fractional Brownian Motion , 1997 .

[26]  R. Thaler,et al.  THE BEHAVIORAL LIFE‐CYCLE HYPOTHESIS , 1988 .

[27]  Patrick Cheridito,et al.  Arbitrage in fractional Brownian motion models , 2003, Finance Stochastics.

[28]  Jean-François Coeurjolly Inférence statistique pour les mouvements browniens fractionnaires et multifractionnaires. (Statistical inference for fractional and multifractional Brownian motions) , 2000 .

[29]  E. Fama EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* , 1970 .

[30]  Gopinath Kallianpur,et al.  Arbitrage Opportunities for a Class of Gladyshev Processes , 2000 .

[31]  P. Protter,et al.  No Arbitrage Without Semimartingales , 2009, 0906.2318.

[32]  Jacques Istas,et al.  Identifying the multifractional function of a Gaussian process , 1998 .

[33]  S. Bianchi,et al.  MULTIFRACTIONAL PROPERTIES OF STOCK INDICES DECOMPOSED BY FILTERING THEIR POINTWISE HÖLDER REGULARITY , 2008 .

[34]  P. Vallois,et al.  Volatility estimators and the inverse range process in a random volatility random walk and Wiener processes , 2008 .

[35]  Murad S. Taqqu,et al.  How rich is the class of multifractional Brownian motions , 2006 .

[36]  Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh,et al.  Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective , 2003 .

[37]  Patrick Cheridito,et al.  Regularizing fractional Brownian motion with a view towards stock price modelling , 2001 .

[38]  Laurent E. Calvet,et al.  Multifractality in Asset Returns: Theory and Evidence , 2002, Review of Economics and Statistics.

[39]  A. Lo The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis , 2004 .

[40]  S. Bianchi,et al.  Pointwise Regularity Exponents and Well-Behaved Residuals in Stock Markets , 2011 .

[41]  J. L. Véhel,et al.  A Central Limit Theorem for the Generalized Quadratic Variation of the Step Fractional Brownian Motion , 2007 .

[42]  Charles S. Tapiero,et al.  Memory-based persistence in a counting random walk process , 2007 .

[43]  Giovani L. Vasconcelos,et al.  Long-range correlations and nonstationarity in the Brazilian stock market , 2003 .

[44]  P. Bertrand,et al.  Modelling NASDAQ Series by Sparse Multifractional Brownian Motion , 2012 .

[45]  A Time Domain Characterization of the Fine Local Regularity of Functions , 2002 .

[46]  Pointwise Regularity Exponents and Market Cross-Correlations , 2010 .

[47]  Charles S. Tapiero,et al.  Range inter-event process in a symmetric birth death random walk and the detection of chaos , 2000 .

[48]  Anil K. Bera,et al.  A test for normality of observations and regression residuals , 1987 .

[49]  Laurent E. Calvet,et al.  Multifractal Volatility: Theory, Forecasting, and Pricing , 2008 .

[50]  C. Tapiero Re-Engineering Risks and the Future of Finance , 2013 .

[51]  A. Lo,et al.  Adaptive Markets and the New World Order , 2011 .

[52]  G. A. Hunt Random Fourier transforms , 1951 .

[53]  Hersh Shefrin,et al.  Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing Theory , 1994, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[54]  L. Summers Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values , 1986 .

[55]  Charles S. Tapiero,et al.  Range reliability in random walks , 1997, Math. Methods Oper. Res..

[56]  Emmanuel Bacry,et al.  Random cascades on wavelet dyadic trees , 1998 .

[57]  F. Delbaen,et al.  A general version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing , 1994 .

[58]  A. Lo,et al.  Adaptive Markets and the New World Order (corrected May 2012) , 2012 .

[59]  Jacques Lévy Véhel,et al.  Local Hölder Regularity-Based Modeling of RR Intervals , 2008, 2008 21st IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems.

[60]  J. L. Véhel,et al.  The Generalized Multifractional Brownian Motion , 2000 .

[61]  Identification d’un processus gaussien multifractionnaire avec des ruptures sur la fonction d’échelle , 1999 .

[62]  A. Benassi,et al.  Regularity and Identification of Generalized Multifractional Gaussian Processes , 2005 .

[63]  B. Øksendal,et al.  FRACTIONAL WHITE NOISE CALCULUS AND APPLICATIONS TO FINANCE , 2003 .

[64]  Andrew T. A. Wood,et al.  Simulation of Multifractional Brownian Motion , 1998, COMPSTAT.

[65]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect Theory : An Analysis of Decision under Risk Author ( s ) : , 2007 .

[66]  B. Mandelbrot,et al.  Fractional Brownian Motions, Fractional Noises and Applications , 1968 .

[67]  A. Lo,et al.  Reconciling Efficient Markets with Behavioral Finance: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis , 2005 .

[68]  J. L. Véhel,et al.  Generalized Multifractional Brownian Motion: Definition and Preliminary Results , 1999 .

[69]  E. Fama,et al.  Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices , 1988, Journal of Political Economy.

[70]  Jean-François Coeurjolly,et al.  Identification of multifractional Brownian motion , 2005 .

[71]  Hersh Shefrin,et al.  Behavioral Portfolio Theory , 2000, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[72]  P. Bertrand Financial Modelling by Multiscale Fractional Brownian Motion , 2005 .

[73]  E. Ziegel,et al.  Proceedings in Computational Statistics , 1998 .

[74]  Erhan Bayraktar,et al.  A Limit Theorem for Financial Markets with Inert Investors , 2006, Math. Oper. Res..

[75]  S. Bianchi,et al.  Modeling stock prices by multifractional Brownian motion: an improved estimation of the pointwise regularity , 2013 .

[76]  Sergio Bianchi,et al.  Pathwise Identification Of The Memory Function Of Multifractional Brownian Motion With Application To Finance , 2005 .

[77]  H Lawrence,et al.  SUMMERS, . Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?, The Journal of Finance, , . , 1986 .

[78]  A. Benassi,et al.  Identification of the Hurst Index of a Step Fractional Brownian Motion , 2000 .

[79]  S. Jaffard,et al.  Elliptic gaussian random processes , 1997 .

[80]  R. Cont Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues , 2001 .

[81]  Richard T. Baillie,et al.  Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics , 1996 .

[82]  R. Shiller Stock Prices and Social Dynamics , 1984 .

[83]  Christian Bender,et al.  Arbitrage with fractional Brownian motion , 2007 .

[84]  Charles S. Tapiero,et al.  Run length statistics and the hurst exponent in random and birth-death random walks , 1996 .

[85]  J. Coeurjolly,et al.  HURST EXPONENT ESTIMATION OF LOCALLY SELF-SIMILAR GAUSSIAN PROCESSES USING SAMPLE QUANTILES , 2005, math/0506290.

[86]  L. Decreusefond,et al.  Stochastic Analysis of the Fractional Brownian Motion , 1999 .

[87]  Patrick Cheridito Mixed fractional Brownian motion , 2001 .