Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2] (C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff. We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the three‐way interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two‐way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor's effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor's effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two‐way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes.

[1]  W. Parton,et al.  Modelled effects of precipitation on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones , 2008 .

[2]  Markus Reichstein,et al.  Consequences of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes for Terrestrial Ecosystems , 2008 .

[3]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Soil hydrological properties regulate grassland ecosystem responses to multifactor global change: A modeling analysis , 2008 .

[4]  Yiqi Luo.  Terrestrial Carbon-Cycle Feedback to Climate Warming , 2007 .

[5]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Increases in nitrogen uptake rather than nitrogen-use efficiency support higher rates of temperate forest productivity under elevated CO2 , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  S. Linder,et al.  Impact of elevated carbon dioxide concentration and temperature on bud burst and shoot growth of boreal Norway spruce. , 2007, Tree physiology.

[7]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[8]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Implementing plant hydraulic architecture within the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model , 2006 .

[9]  C. Körner.  F1000Prime recommendation of SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND TURNOVER IN A PINE FOREST AFTER SIX YEARS OF ATMOSPHERIC co 2 ENRICHMENT. , 2006 .

[10]  T. Huxman,et al.  Increases in Desert Shrub Productivity under Elevated Carbon Dioxide Vary with Water Availability , 2006, Ecosystems.

[11]  O. Sala,et al.  Vegetation structure constrains primary production response to water availability in the Patagonian steppe. , 2006, Ecology.

[12]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Main and interactive effects of warming, clipping, and doubled precipitation on soil CO2 efflux in a grassland ecosystem , 2006 .

[13]  S. Idso,et al.  Interactive Effects of Elevated Carbon Dioxide and Drought on Wheat , 2006 .

[14]  R. Norby,et al.  Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide increases soil carbon , 2005 .

[15]  T. Tschaplinski,et al.  Importance of changing CO2, temperature, precipitation, and ozone on carbon and water cycles of an upland‐oak forest: incorporating experimental results into model simulations , 2005 .

[16]  Christopher B Field,et al.  Responses of Grassland Production to Single and Multiple Global Environmental Changes , 2005, PLoS biology.

[17]  W. Schlesinger,et al.  SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND TURNOVER IN A PINE FOREST AFTER SIX YEARS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ENRICHMENT , 2005 .

[18]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on ecosystem carbon processes in a tallgrass prairie , 2005 .

[19]  Diane K. Michelson,et al.  Analysis of Variance for Random Models, Vol. 1: Balanced Data, Theory, Methods, Applications and Data Analysis , 2005, Technometrics.

[20]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere‐biosphere system , 2005 .

[21]  P. Kokko-Gonzales,et al.  Soil CO2 efflux of two silver birch clones exposed to elevated CO2 and O3 levels during three growing seasons , 2004 .

[22]  W. Parton,et al.  Progressive Nitrogen Limitation of Ecosystem Responses to Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide , 2004 .

[23]  S. Kellomäki,et al.  Soil CO2 efflux in a boreal pine forest under atmospheric CO2 enrichment and air warming , 2004 .

[24]  H. Sahai,et al.  Analysis of Variance for Random Models: Volume I: Balanced Data Theory, Methods, Applications and Data Analysis , 2004 .

[25]  M. R. Shaw,et al.  Water relations in grassland and desert ecosystems exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2 , 2004, Oecologia.

[26]  R. Norby,et al.  Evaluating ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO2 and global warming in a multi‐factor world , 2004 .

[27]  W. Lucht,et al.  Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model , 2004 .

[28]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Grassland responses to three years of elevated temperature, CO2, precipitation, and N deposition , 2003 .

[29]  J. Blair,et al.  Productivity responses to altered rainfall patterns in a C4-dominated grassland , 2003, Oecologia.

[30]  Jürg Fuhrer,et al.  Agroecosystem responses to combinations of elevated CO2, ozone, and global climate change , 2003 .

[31]  H. Mooney,et al.  Additive effects of simulated climate changes, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition on grassland diversity , 2003, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[32]  J. Blair,et al.  Rainfall Variability, Carbon Cycling, and Plant Species Diversity in a Mesic Grassland , 2002, Science.

[33]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Grassland Responses to Global Environmental Changes Suppressed by Elevated CO2 , 2002, Science.

[34]  S. Linder,et al.  Effects of nutrition and soil warming on stemwood production in a boreal Norway spruce stand , 2002 .

[35]  J. Aber,et al.  Soil warming and carbon-cycle feedbacks to the climate system. , 2002, Science.

[36]  Y. Luo,et al.  Changes in microclimate induced by experimental warming and clipping in tallgrass prairie , 2002 .

[37]  J. Tenhunen,et al.  Evapotranspiration and soil water content in a scrub‐oak woodland under carbon dioxide enrichment , 2002 .

[38]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Direct and Indirect Effects , 2001, UAI.

[39]  P. Reich,et al.  Grassland species effects on soil CO2 flux track the effects of elevated CO2 and nitrogen , 2001 .

[40]  Thomas L. Thompson,et al.  Elevated CO2, drought and soil nitrogen effects on wheat grain quality , 2001 .

[41]  F. Woodward,et al.  Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models , 2001 .

[42]  J. Ehleringer,et al.  Time-dependent responses of soil CO2 efflux components to elevated atmospheric [CO2] and temperature in experimental forest mesocosms , 2001, Plant and Soil.

[43]  James F. Reynolds,et al.  GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY IN DUKE FOREST: MODELING SYNTHESIS OF CO2 EXPERIMENT AND EDDY -FLUX DATA , 2001 .

[44]  F. Chapin,et al.  Global Warming and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis , 2000 .

[45]  K. Pregitzer,et al.  Elevated atmospheric CO2, fine roots and the response of soil microorganisms: a review and hypothesis , 2000 .

[46]  S. Bridgham,et al.  ECOSYSTEM CONTROL OVER TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY FLUX IN NORTHERN PEATLANDS , 1999 .

[47]  R. Norby,et al.  Below-ground respiratory responses of sugar maple and red maple saplings to atmospheric CO2 enrichment and elevated air temperature , 1999, Plant and Soil.

[48]  David R. Easterling,et al.  Long-Term Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events over the Conterminous United States and Canada , 1999 .

[49]  James F. Reynolds,et al.  VALIDITY OF EXTRAPOLATING FIELD CO2 EXPERIMENTS TO PREDICT CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS , 1999 .

[50]  K. Homma,et al.  Energy Budget and Transpiration Characteristics of Rice Grown under Elevated CO2 and High Temperature Conditions as Determined by Remotely Sensed Canopy Temperatures , 1999 .

[51]  S. Linder,et al.  Effects of soil warming during spring on photosynthetic recovery in boreal Norway spruce stands , 1999 .

[52]  P. Reich,et al.  Temperature and ontogeny mediate growth response to elevated CO2 in seedlings of five boreal tree species. , 1998, The New phytologist.

[53]  D. Ellsworth,et al.  Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2 atmosphere , 1998 .

[54]  M. V. Price,et al.  EFFECTS OF EXPERIMENTAL WARMING ON PLANT REPRODUCTIVE PHENOLOGY IN A SUBALPINE MEADOW , 1998 .

[55]  B. Drake,et al.  MORE EFFICIENT PLANTS: A Consequence of Rising Atmospheric CO2? , 1997, Annual review of plant physiology and plant molecular biology.

[56]  Edward B. Rastetter,et al.  RESPONSES OF N‐LIMITED ECOSYSTEMS TO INCREASED CO2: A BALANCED‐NUTRITION, COUPLED‐ELEMENT‐CYCLES MODEL , 1997 .

[57]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Elevated CO2 increases belowground respiration in California grasslands , 1996, Oecologia.

[58]  G. Farquhar,et al.  The CO 2 Dependence of Photosynthesis, Plant Growth Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations and Their Interaction with Soil Nutrient Status. I. General Principles and Forest Ecosystems , 1996 .

[59]  J. Harte,et al.  Shifting Dominance Within a Montane Vegetation Community: Results of a Climate-Warming Experiment , 1995, Science.

[60]  A. Kinzig,et al.  Global Warming and Soil Microclimate: Results from a Meadow‐Warming Experiment , 1995 .

[61]  R. McMurtrie,et al.  Long-Term Response of Nutrient-Limited Forests to CO"2 Enrichment; Equilibrium Behavior of Plant-Soil Models. , 1993, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[62]  S. Long,et al.  Primary Production in Grasslands and Coniferous Forests with Climate Change: An Overview. , 1991, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[63]  W. Parton,et al.  Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands , 1987 .

[64]  H. Friedli,et al.  Ice core record of the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 in the past two centuries , 1986, Nature.

[65]  H. Oeschger,et al.  Ice core sample measurements give atmospheric CO2 content during the past 40,000 yr , 1982, Nature.

[66]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Modeling patterns of nonlinearity in ecosystem responses to temperature, CO2, and precipitation changes. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[67]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[68]  S. Solomon.  The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[69]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Elevated CO2 stimulates net accumulations of carbon and nitrogen in land ecosystems: a meta-analysis. , 2006, Ecology.

[70]  Yiqi Luo,et al.  Elevated Carbon Dioxide Stimulates Net Accumulations of Carbon and Nitrogen in Terrestrial Ecosystems : A Meta-Analysis , 2005 .

[71]  L. J. H. A N S O N,et al.  Importance of changing CO 2 , temperature, precipitation, and ozone on carbon and water cycles of an upland-oak forest: incorporating experimental results into model simulations , 2005 .

[72]  Hardeo Sahai,et al.  Analysis of variance for random models , 2004 .

[73]  EK VIV,et al.  A parameterization of leaf phenology for the terrestrial ecosystem component of climate models , 2004 .

[74]  S. P. Bird,et al.  Evaluating and Testing Models of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry: The Role of Temperature in Controlling Decomposition , 2003 .

[75]  P. Hanson,et al.  Tree and Sapling Growth and Mortality , 2003 .

[76]  B. Hungate.  Ecosystem Responses to Rising Atmospheric CO2 , 1999 .

[77]  S S I T C H,et al.  Evaluation of Ecosystem Dynamics, Plant Geography and Terrestrial Carbon Cycling in the Lpj Dynamic Global Vegetation Model , 2022 .