ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS: THE LONG-TERM FUTURE

This paper examines the extent to which three alternative transport fuels, namely natural gas-based fuels, biomass alcohols and electricity or hydrogen can significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions and oil use for light vehicles. The year 2020 was chosen as the reference year, because of the long lead times for major penetration of a new fuel. Only minor oil savings were found possible with natural gas and biomass fuels, and emission savings are maximized if these fuels are used for electricity generation rather than transport. At present, neither electric nor hydrogen vehicles offer emission reductions over equivalent petrol vehicles. Only when most electricity is derived from renewable energy will such vehicles give substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions.

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