The Prediction of Non-Stationary Physical Time Series Using the Application of Regularization Technique in Self-organised Multilayer Perceptrons Inspired by the Immune Algorithm

Neural networks have been widely used in nonlinear time series prediction. They have generated lot of interest due to their comprehensive adaptive and learning abilities. Neural networks have been used in Medical forecasting, Exchange rate forecasting, stock index prediction, and other areas, which show a practical value of neural networks. This paper presents a novel application of the Self-organised Multilayer perceptrons network that is inspired by the Immune Algorithm (SMIA) in physical time series prediction. The Regularization technique is used with the self-organised multilayer perceptronss network that is inspired by the immune algorithm (R-SMIA). The results of 20 simulations generated from two non-stationary physical time series using various neural networks are demonstrates. The results of R-SMIA were compared with four networks which include the MLP, R-MLP, FLNN, and SMIA networks.

[1]  Jonathan Timmis Artificial immune systems : a novel data analysis technique inspired by the immune network theory , 2000 .

[2]  F. Tay,et al.  Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting , 2001 .

[3]  David G. Stork,et al.  Pattern classification, 2nd Edition , 2000 .

[4]  Jagdish C. Patra,et al.  Functional link artificial neural network-based adaptive channel equalization of nonlinear channels with QAM signal , 1995, 1995 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. Intelligent Systems for the 21st Century.

[5]  John Moody,et al.  Note on generalization, regularization and architecture selection in nonlinear learning systems , 1991, Neural Networks for Signal Processing Proceedings of the 1991 IEEE Workshop.

[6]  Anders Krogh,et al.  A Simple Weight Decay Can Improve Generalization , 1991, NIPS.

[7]  Francis Eng Hock Tay,et al.  Modified support vector machines in financial time series forecasting , 2002, Neurocomputing.

[8]  Rozaida Ghazali Higher order neural networks for financial time series prediction , 2007 .

[9]  Kin Keung Lai,et al.  Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates With Artificial Neural Networks: A Review , 2004, Int. J. Inf. Technol. Decis. Mak..

[10]  D. Al-Jumeily,et al.  Adaptive Neural Network Model Using the Immune System for Financial Time Series Forecasting , 2009, 2009 International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Modelling and Simulation.

[11]  Heekuck Oh,et al.  Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition , 1993, Adv. Comput..

[12]  C. Lee Giles,et al.  Overfitting and neural networks: conjugate gradient and backpropagation , 2000, Proceedings of the IEEE-INNS-ENNS International Joint Conference on Neural Networks. IJCNN 2000. Neural Computing: New Challenges and Perspectives for the New Millennium.

[13]  Dhiya Al-Jumeily,et al.  The Application of the Neural Network Model Inspired by the Immune System in Financial Time Series Prediction , 2009, 2009 Second International Conference on Developments in eSystems Engineering.

[14]  Chin-Teng Lin,et al.  A Functional-Link-Based Neurofuzzy Network for Nonlinear System Control , 2008, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[15]  Milton S. Boyd,et al.  Designing a neural network for forecasting financial and economic time series , 1996, Neurocomputing.

[16]  Dhiya Al-Jumeily,et al.  How Good Is the Backpropogation Neural Network Using a Self-Organised Network Inspired by Immune Algorithm (SONIA) When Used for Multi-step Financial Time Series Prediction? , 2007, ISNN.

[17]  Mo-Yuen Chow,et al.  Reduced-order functional link neural network for HVAC thermal system identification and modeling , 1997, Proceedings of International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN'97).

[18]  Andries P. Engelbrecht Computational Intelligence , 2002, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

[19]  Mark Williams,et al.  Modelling and Trading the EUR / USD Exchange Rate : Do Neural Network Models Perform Better ? , 2002 .

[20]  Xiao Zhi Gao,et al.  Artificial Immune Networks: Models and Applications , 2006, 2006 International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security.

[21]  Kaoru Hirota,et al.  Improving recognition and generalization capability of back-propagation NN using a self-organized network inspired by immune algorithm (SONIA) , 2005, Appl. Soft Comput..