Characterizing stochastic time series with ordinal networks.

Approaches for mapping time series to networks have become essential tools for dealing with the increasing challenges of characterizing data from complex systems. Among the different algorithms, the recently proposed ordinal networks stand out due to their simplicity and computational efficiency. However, applications of ordinal networks have been mainly focused on time series arising from nonlinear dynamical systems, while basic properties of ordinal networks related to simple stochastic processes remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate several properties of ordinal networks emerging from random time series, noisy periodic signals, fractional Brownian motion, and earthquake magnitude series. For ordinal networks of random series, we present an approach for building the exact form of the adjacency matrix, which in turn is useful for detecting nonrandom behavior in time series and the existence of missing transitions among ordinal patterns. We find that the average value of a local entropy, estimated from transition probabilities among neighboring nodes of ordinal networks, is more robust against noise addition than the standard permutation entropy. We show that ordinal networks can be used for estimating the Hurst exponent of time series with accuracy comparable with state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we argue that ordinal networks can detect sudden changes in Earth's seismic activity caused by large earthquakes.

[1]  Benoit B. Mandelbrot,et al.  Fractal Geometry of Nature , 1984 .

[2]  L M Hively,et al.  Detecting dynamical changes in time series using the permutation entropy. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[3]  A. Levine,et al.  New estimates of the storage permanence and ocean co-benefits of enhanced rock weathering , 2023, PNAS nexus.

[4]  Sarah Ayad,et al.  Quantifying sudden changes in dynamical systems using symbolic networks , 2015, 1501.06790.

[5]  Matjaž Perc,et al.  History of art paintings through the lens of entropy and complexity , 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  HighWire Press Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London , 1781, The London Medical Journal.

[8]  M. Scheffler,et al.  Insightful classification of crystal structures using deep learning , 2017, Nature Communications.

[9]  Gregoire Nicolis,et al.  Dynamical Aspects of Interaction Networks , 2005, Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos.

[10]  Miguel A. F. Sanjuán,et al.  True and false forbidden patterns in deterministic and random dynamics , 2007 .

[11]  L. Zunino,et al.  Revisiting the decay of missing ordinal patterns in long-term correlated time series , 2019, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

[12]  Chstoph Bandt,et al.  Order Patterns in Time Series , 2007 .

[13]  Bosiljka Tadić,et al.  Hidden geometry of traffic jamming. , 2015, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[14]  Andriana S. L. O. Campanharo,et al.  Hurst exponent estimation of self-affine time series using quantile graphs , 2016 .

[15]  Lucas Lacasa,et al.  Description of stochastic and chaotic series using visibility graphs. , 2010, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[16]  Michael Small,et al.  Constructing ordinal partition transition networks from multivariate time series , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[17]  Karsten Keller,et al.  Conditional entropy of ordinal patterns , 2014, 1407.5390.

[18]  J. Hosking Modeling persistence in hydrological time series using fractional differencing , 1984 .

[19]  O A Rosso,et al.  Distinguishing noise from chaos. , 2007, Physical review letters.

[20]  J. Herskowitz,et al.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA , 1996, Current Biology.

[21]  Michael Small,et al.  Time lagged ordinal partition networks for capturing dynamics of continuous dynamical systems. , 2015, Chaos.

[22]  C. E. SHANNON,et al.  A mathematical theory of communication , 1948, MOCO.

[23]  Ljupco Kocarev,et al.  Order patterns and chaos , 2006 .

[24]  J. Schnakenberg Network theory of microscopic and macroscopic behavior of master equation systems , 1976 .

[25]  Lucas Lacasa,et al.  From time series to complex networks: The visibility graph , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[26]  Ericka Stricklin-Parker,et al.  Ann , 2005 .

[27]  C. Peng,et al.  Mosaic organization of DNA nucleotides. , 1994, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[28]  Michael Small,et al.  Counting forbidden patterns in irregularly sampled time series. II. Reliability in the presence of highly irregular sampling. , 2016, Chaos.

[29]  Chris Mattmann,et al.  Computing: A vision for data science , 2013, Nature.

[30]  M Small,et al.  Complex network from pseudoperiodic time series: topology versus dynamics. , 2006, Physical review letters.

[31]  C. Gini Measurement of Inequality of Incomes , 1921 .

[32]  M. Small,et al.  Characterizing system dynamics with a weighted and directed network constructed from time series data. , 2014, Chaos.

[33]  D. Sornette,et al.  Comparing the performance of FA, DFA and DMA using different synthetic long-range correlated time series , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[34]  Miguel A. F. Sanjuán,et al.  Combinatorial detection of determinism in noisy time series , 2008 .

[35]  L. Amaral,et al.  Duality between Time Series and Networks , 2011, PloS one.

[36]  B. Mandelbrot,et al.  Fractional Brownian Motions, Fractional Noises and Applications , 1968 .

[37]  M. Small,et al.  Multiscale ordinal network analysis of human cardiac dynamics , 2017, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[38]  B. Pompe,et al.  Permutation entropy: a natural complexity measure for time series. , 2002, Physical review letters.

[39]  Pierre Baudot,et al.  Topological Information Data Analysis , 2019, Entropy.

[40]  Michael Small,et al.  Counting forbidden patterns in irregularly sampled time series. I. The effects of under-sampling, random depletion, and timing jitter. , 2016, Chaos.

[41]  Y. Ogata,et al.  The Centenary of the Omori Formula for a Decay Law of Aftershock Activity , 1995 .

[42]  S. Holmes,et al.  Tracking network dynamics: A survey using graph distances , 2018, The Annals of Applied Statistics.

[43]  J. Kurths,et al.  Complex network approaches to nonlinear time series analysis , 2019, Physics Reports.