REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE CHANNEL TUNNEL

This paper describes the implementation and some of the results of a project to examine the regional economic impact of the Channel Tunnel and of associated transport links. The impact which the Tunnel and associated improvements may have is analysed through the development and application of a computer model. This is used to estimate the potential impacts first of the Tunnel, and then of further developments intended to increase the effects in regions beyond Kent and London. Virtually the whole of Western Europe is included in the analysis. Both passenger and freight movement are considered, with representation of service frequencies, access to modes and interchange between modes. The choice between modes was treated by means of a multinominal logit model, with parameters reflecting a variation in sensitivity to time differences over different journey lengths. The resulting averages, reflecting the journey times and the choice of modes available, were used to calculate accessibilities and economic potentials. These calculations incorporated: "border" effects to distinguish between national and international interactions. The changes in economic potential, modified by a sensitivity parameter, were used to estimate changes in employment due to the Tunnel and other related or competing possibilities. The results suggest that the completion of the Tunnel and of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link could have a substantial effect on the UK economy, greatest in but by no means confined to South-East England. (A) For the covering abstract of the seminar see IRRD 863417.