Probabilistic model for the chloride-induced corrosion service life of bridge decks

Abstract A statistical model to determine the time to first repair and subsequent rehabilitation of concrete bridge decks exposed to chloride deicer salts that incorporates the statistical nature of factors affecting the corrosion process is developed. The model expands on an existing deterministic model using statistical resampling techniques. Emphasis was placed on the diffusion portion of the diffusion-cracking model. Data collected for the time for corrosion deterioration after corrosion initiation can be readily incorporated into the model. Data for the surface chloride concentration, apparent diffusion coefficient and clear cover depth were collected from 10 bridge decks built in Virginia. Several ranges of the chloride corrosion initiation concentration, as determined from the available literature, were investigated. The resampling techniques known as the simple and parametric bootstrap were used to predict time to first repair and rehabilitation based on the observed field data. The two methods provide results that substantially agree for all decks investigated.

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