The possibilities of conducting scenario analyses of a sustainable development of the transport system using the emitransys model

The article presents selected aspects of shaping pro ecological transport system. Correct, socially responsible, economically reasonable and far-sighted allocation of resources is one of the basic tools of sustainable development shaping. In the case when this concept in a narrower sense refers to shaping the national transport system one can distinguish the general problem: how to invest financial resources in the development of the transport system and how to manage this system in order to one can say about it as "sustainable". The article presents the principles of creating scenario analyses, discusses the procedure and elements of an algorithm for the development of scenarios of the sustainable transport system. The procedure for conducting scenario consists of three stages of research. The analyses were conducted by the use of EMITRANSYS model. The EMITRANSYS model was developed in Visum. Its main elements are the network model, demand model, integrated database and a set of scenarios of an analysis of transport system development. The simulation model EMITRANSYS was developed under the PBS1 project "Shaping of the pro ecological transport system” financed by the National Centre of Science and Development. The project was realized within the consortium consisting of the Faculty of Transport of The Warsaw University of Technology and the Faculty of Machines and Transport of The Poznan University of Technology in the years 2012-2014.

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