Use of regression analysis for the construction of empirical fragility curves

The effectiveness of any project aimed at mitigating the consequences of possible future earthquakes on the built environment depends on the accurate quantification of seismic risk. A key component for this is the reliable assessment of structural fragility and in particular the regression analyses commonly adopted for the construction of empirical fragility curves from post-earthquake data. The generalised linear models were found to be theoretically more suitable for the construction of the fragility curves. Nonetheless, the poor fit of the selected regression model, fitted by the latter approach to Italian field stone masonry data, demonstrated the vital role of the diagnostics and the need to increase the complexity of the regression models perhaps by adding more predictor variables, building generalised linear mixed models as well as the need for accurate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty.

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