Probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty is developed. It incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in structural integrity assessment. Thereby, a comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. Furthermore, the factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction. High prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to experimental results of GH4133 superalloy.

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