A primer in field-growth estimation

Field growth refers to the phenomenon of increasing estimates of ultimately recoverable oil and gas that occur as oil and gas fields are developed. From 1978 to 1990, growth of known fields in the United States has accounted for 90 percent of the annual additions to proved reserves. Now that field growth is recognized as a significant source of additions to proved reserves, field-growth prediction models are being made more sophisticated so that the timing of these reserve additions can be forecast. This paper surveys the literature on field growth and methods of field-growth estimation. It also examines data of nonassociated gas fields of South America, Western Europe, the Middle East, Africa, non-Communist Far East, and the southwestern Pacific to demonstrate evidence of field growth. Field growth patterns are influenced by market conditions for the resource as well as physical characteristics. These data are also then used in an example that demonstrates field-growth analysis. Although international gas fields show clear evidence of field growth, the data are not yet sufficient for estimating reliable growth functions. 14 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.