The Future for High Temperature Materials and Coatings in the New Millennium
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The planning of research has recently taken a new direction. Longer-range research needs are now being identified by a technique called 'Road Mapping'. This replaces the former division between short-range problem-directed evolutionary research and long-range more fundamental research determined by the inspiration of the individual investigator. The Road Map method attempts to identify long range scenarios - how the world will look in 2025, 2050 or 2100 - and determines what technologies will be critical in their attainment. This is done by first attempting to reach consensus among a group of people with different backgrounds, specializations, and interests; and the scenarios are movable, in the sense that as developments proceed, the visions may also change. Once the scenarios are identified, the technical barriers to their attainment can also be identified, and the dates by which each must be surmounted can also be estimated. These are called 'destinations'. This allows the research needed to be prioritized, in the sense that the nearer destinations should receive the most immediate attention - akin to a critical path analysis. Finally, this process allows the planning of research programs in the near term, of the order of the next five years. This approach is exciting, because it is the first method that allows long-range research planning to be done in a manner which allows the community to recognize its relevance. It also provides a tool that allows the termination of research programs that are not heading towards a critical destination. Roadmapping approaches are now widely used in the United States and Europe. Both EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy have been conducting high-level Road Map studies related to the future of energy, and to some extent have identified relatively high-level destinations. The next stage, which looks at the challenges to individual enabling technologies, is just starting. In this paper, the main features of the current Road Maps relevant to power generation systems will be discussed, and some indications of the anticipated critical challenges for high-temperature materials will be given.