Approximating high-dimensional dynamics by barycentric coordinates with linear programming.

The increasing development of novel methods and techniques facilitates the measurement of high-dimensional time series but challenges our ability for accurate modeling and predictions. The use of a general mathematical model requires the inclusion of many parameters, which are difficult to be fitted for relatively short high-dimensional time series observed. Here, we propose a novel method to accurately model a high-dimensional time series. Our method extends the barycentric coordinates to high-dimensional phase space by employing linear programming, and allowing the approximation errors explicitly. The extension helps to produce free-running time-series predictions that preserve typical topological, dynamical, and/or geometric characteristics of the underlying attractors more accurately than the radial basis function model that is widely used. The method can be broadly applied, from helping to improve weather forecasting, to creating electronic instruments that sound more natural, and to comprehensively understanding complex biological data.

[1]  George Cybenko,et al.  Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function , 1992, Math. Control. Signals Syst..

[2]  Francisco B. Rodriguez,et al.  Event detection, multimodality and non-stationarity: Ordinal patterns, a tool to rule them all? , 2013 .

[3]  Ken-ichi Funahashi,et al.  On the approximate realization of continuous mappings by neural networks , 1989, Neural Networks.

[4]  K. Kaneko Period-Doubling of Kink-Antikink Patterns, Quasiperiodicity in Antiferro-Like Structures and Spatial Intermittency in Coupled Logistic Lattice*) -- Towards a Prelude of a "Field Theory of Chaos"-- , 1984 .

[5]  Alistair I. Mees,et al.  Modelling Complex Systems , 1990 .

[6]  Tamiki Komatsuzaki,et al.  Construction of effective free energy landscape from single-molecule time series , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  O. Rössler An equation for continuous chaos , 1976 .

[8]  Michael Small,et al.  Minimum description length neural networks for time series prediction. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[9]  Yoshito Hirata,et al.  Fast time-series prediction using high-dimensional data: evaluating confidence interval credibility. , 2014, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[10]  Alistair Mees Dynamical Systems and Tesselations: Detecting Determinism in Data , 1991 .

[11]  E. Lorenz Deterministic nonperiodic flow , 1963 .

[12]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Application of joint permutations for predicting coupled time series. , 2013, Chaos.

[13]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  The geometry of chaotic dynamics — a complex network perspective , 2011, 1102.1853.

[14]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  A Hierarchical Multi-oscillator Network Orchestrates the Arabidopsis Circadian System , 2015, Cell.

[15]  P. Más,et al.  Distribution of TMV movement protein in single living protoplasts immobilized in agarose. , 1998, The Plant journal : for cell and molecular biology.

[16]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  Pseudo-Orbit Data Assimilation. Part I: The Perfect Model Scenario , 2014 .

[17]  Sanjay Mehrotra,et al.  On the Implementation of a Primal-Dual Interior Point Method , 1992, SIAM J. Optim..

[18]  Wolfram Bunk,et al.  Transcripts: an algebraic approach to coupled time series. , 2012, Chaos.

[19]  D. Kilminster Modelling dynamical systems via behaviour criteria , 2002 .

[20]  Kevin Judd,et al.  Modelling the dynamics of nonlinear time series using canonical variate analysis , 2002 .

[21]  George Sugihara,et al.  Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series , 1990, Nature.

[22]  T. Mizuno,et al.  PSEUDO-RESPONSE REGULATORS 9, 7, and 5 Are Transcriptional Repressors in the Arabidopsis Circadian Clock[W][OA] , 2010, Plant Cell.

[23]  Shang-Liang Chen,et al.  Orthogonal least squares learning algorithm for radial basis function networks , 1991, IEEE Trans. Neural Networks.

[24]  Kazuyuki Aihara,et al.  Forecasting abrupt changes in foreign exchange markets: method using dynamical network marker , 2014 .

[25]  Kevin Judd,et al.  Reconstructing noisy dynamical systems by triangulations , 1997 .

[26]  Stuart Allie,et al.  Finding periodic points from short time series , 1997 .

[27]  James D. Keeler,et al.  Layered Neural Networks with Gaussian Hidden Units as Universal Approximations , 1990, Neural Computation.

[28]  A. Mees,et al.  On selecting models for nonlinear time series , 1995 .

[29]  B. Pompe,et al.  Permutation entropy: a natural complexity measure for time series. , 2002, Physical review letters.

[30]  Kurt Hornik,et al.  Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators , 1989, Neural Networks.

[31]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Recurrence plots for the analysis of complex systems , 2009 .

[32]  G. Keller,et al.  Entropy of interval maps via permutations , 2002 .

[33]  J. A. Leonard,et al.  Radial basis function networks for classifying process faults , 1991, IEEE Control Systems.

[34]  Ramon Grima,et al.  Spontaneous spatiotemporal waves of gene expression from biological clocks in the leaf , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[35]  José M. Amigó,et al.  Topological permutation entropy , 2007 .

[36]  L. Kocarev,et al.  The permutation entropy rate equals the metric entropy rate for ergodic information sources and ergodic dynamical systems , 2005, nlin/0503044.

[37]  Yin Zhang,et al.  Solving large-scale linear programs by interior-point methods under the Matlab ∗ Environment † , 1998 .

[38]  R.P. Lippmann,et al.  Pattern classification using neural networks , 1989, IEEE Communications Magazine.

[39]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  Geometric signature of complex synchronisation scenarios , 2013, 1301.0806.

[40]  Yoshiki Kuramoto,et al.  Self-entrainment of a population of coupled non-linear oscillators , 1975 .

[41]  F. Takens Detecting strange attractors in turbulence , 1981 .

[42]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models* , 2013 .