The population ecology of Datura ferox in soybean crops. A simulation approach incorporating seed dispersal

Abstract A numerical model for simulating the population dynamics of Datura ferox L. (chamico, chinese thronapple) has been built based on previously reported data. In the model, a soybean field is divided into 0.7×0.7-m conceptual modules. A seed production sub-model simulates the annual seed output of each module, and a seed dispersal sub-model simulates the distribution of these propagules within the field in accordance to a specified dispersal pattern. Different model scenarios were generated by varying the proportion of seeds lost from the soil bank, the annual recruitment, the seedling mortality and the proportion of seeds exported from the field during crop harvest. The results obtained by simulation suggest that (1) seed dispersal due to crop harvesting tends to produce an exponential growth of weed seed production, (2) limited or no success could be attained in the control of D. ferox using procedures that kill the seedlings efficiently if combine harvesters are not adjusted so as to maximize the proportion of weed seeds that are exported from the field and (3) if cleaning debris continues to be returned to the ground during crop harvesting, the improvement in the efficiency of the grain/weed separating mechanisms does not provide an effective long-term strategy to avoid grain contamination problems.