Research on Double Forecasting Model of Port Cargo Throughput

A double forecasting model is proposed by using conditional mathematical expectation,based on probability distribution of port cargo throughput.Compound variable,being composed of the number of arrived cargo ships at the port and the operation capacity of handling equipment,is established,port cargo throughput is then the sum of all compound variables.Probability distribution of cargo throughput is obtained by using throughout probability theory.On this basis,future port cargo throughput can be taken as the conditional mathematic expectation of realized throughput,a forecasting model is proposed by applying growing function.A case study of cargo throughput of a port in Shandong province is carried out.Both theoretical analysis and case study show that this model based on conditional expectation has smaller errors of forecasting port cargo throughput than other models.