Ergodic fluctuations in deterministic economic models

Abstract Nonperiodic business fluctuations are shown to exist with positive measure generically and to behave like stationary stochastic processes in the standard dynamic macro model. The implication is that so called ‘chaotic’ fluctuations are probable for random initial conditions in a large class of recursive economies.

[1]  Almost sure invariance principle for some maps of an interval , 1985, Ergodic Theory and Dynamical Systems.

[2]  James A. Yorke,et al.  Ergodic transformations from an interval into itself , 1978 .

[3]  P. Samuelson,et al.  Foundations of Economic Analysis. , 1948 .

[4]  L. A. Metzler.  The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles , 1941 .

[5]  A note on non-periodic demoeconomic fluctuations with positive measure , 1987 .

[6]  James A. Yorke,et al.  Expanding maps on sets which are almost invariant. Decay and chaos , 1979 .

[7]  J. Yorke,et al.  On the existence of invariant measures for piecewise monotonic transformations , 1973 .

[8]  Franz Hofbauer,et al.  Ergodic properties of invariant measures for piecewise monotonic transformations , 1982 .

[9]  M. Pohjola.  Built-in Flexibility of Progressive Taxation and the Dynamics of Income: Stability, Cycles, or Chaos? , 1985 .

[10]  D. A. Singer,et al.  Stable Orbits and Bifurcation of Maps of the Interval , 1978 .

[11]  Richard H. Day,et al.  A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model , 1982 .

[12]  Robert E. Hall,et al.  Investment, Interest Rates, and the Effects of Stabilization Policies , 1977 .

[13]  Jean-Michel Grandmont,et al.  On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles , 1985, Cycles and Chaos in Economic Equilibrium.

[14]  J. Eckmann,et al.  Iterated maps on the interval as dynamical systems , 1980 .

[15]  J. Schwartz,et al.  Linear Operators. Part I: General Theory. , 1960 .

[16]  G. Pianigiani,et al.  ON THE EXISTENCE OF INVARIANT MEASURES , 1979 .

[17]  K. Parthasarathy,et al.  Probability measures on metric spaces , 1967 .

[18]  F. Modigliani,et al.  Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money , 1944 .

[19]  W. Branson.  Macroeconomic theory and policy , 1972 .

[20]  A chaotic function possessing a scrambled set with positive Lebesgue measure , 1984 .

[21]  Z. S. Kowalski.  Invariant Measures for piecewise monotonic transformations , 1975 .

[22]  Michał Misiurewicz,et al.  Absolutely continuous measures for certain maps of an interval , 1981 .