A Prototype Method for Future Event Prediction Based on Future Reference Sentence Extraction

This paper presents our study on future prediction support method based on state-of-the-art natural language processing and pattern extraction techniques. We propose two practical applications of the method. The first is supporting future prediction in human users. The second is automatic future prediction based on provided data. We conduct experiments on the developed prototype method and evaluate its effectiveness. In the development of the method we assumed that sentences from official sources such as newspapers that refer to future events could be useful for future prediction. By using sophisticated patterns combining morphemes and semantic roles, we successfully extracted future reference sentences and effectively used them in future prediction performed both by human users as well as by the fully automatic prototype method. In the experiments we tested the method on a number of future prediction questions from official Future Prediction Competence Test, performed yearly in Japan. Both, the results of the support application as well as the automatic method were higher then the results of original test participants. Moreover, the prototype fully automatic method greatly outperformed all human users. This suggests that the method can be expected to not only reduce the response time and the amount of information needed for prediction in humans, but also perform the prediction automatically on a level comparable and exceeding an average human.