How Corruption Blunts Counternarcotic Policies in Afghanistan: A Multiagent Investigation

We report the results of multiagent modeling experiments on interactions between the drug industry and corruption in Afghanistan. The model formalizes assumptions on the motivations of players in the Afghan drug industry, quantifies the tradeoffs among various choices players face and enables inspection of the time, space and level of supply chain in which one can expect positive and negative impacts of counternarcotic policies. If reducing opium exports is one measure of effectiveness for NATO operations in Afghanistan, grasping the links between corruption and the drug industry should provide a better picture of the second-order interactions between corruption and investment in improving the governance quality, in deploying security forces tasked with eradication and interdiction and in programs to enhance rural livelihoods.