Prediction of shallow landslide occurrence: Validation of a physically-based approach through a real case study.

In recent years, physically-based numerical models have frequently been used in the framework of early-warning systems devoted to rainfall-induced landslide hazard monitoring and mitigation. For this reason, in this work we describe the potential of SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction), a simplified physically-based model for the analysis of shallow landslide occurrence. In order to test the reliability of this model, a back analysis of recent landslide events occurred in the study area (located SW of Messina, northeastern Sicily, Italy) on October 1st, 2009 was performed. The simulation results have been compared with those obtained for the same event by using TRIGRS, another well-established model for shallow landslide prediction. Afterwards, a simulation over a 2-year span period has been performed for the same area, with the aim of evaluating the performance of SLIP as early warning tool. The results confirm the good predictive capability of the model, both in terms of spatial and temporal prediction of the instability phenomena. For this reason, we recommend an operating procedure for the real-time definition of shallow landslide triggering scenarios at the catchment scale, which is based on the use of SLIP calibrated through a specific multi-methodological approach.

[1]  M. Martina,et al.  Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach , 2012 .

[2]  A. Fares,et al.  Comparison of Rainfall Interpolation Methods in a Mountainous Region of a Tropical Island , 2011 .

[3]  Van Genuchten,et al.  A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils , 1980 .

[4]  R. Valentino,et al.  Experimental analysis and modelling of shallow landslides , 2007 .

[5]  Leonardo Cascini,et al.  Modeling of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides of the Flow-Type , 2010 .

[6]  Yang Hong,et al.  Assessment of Shallow Landslides Induced by Mitch Using a Physically Based Model , 2016 .

[7]  R. Valentino,et al.  Shallow landslides triggered by rainfalls: modeling of some case histories in the Reggiano Apennine (Emilia Romagna Region, Northern Italy) , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[8]  R. Valentino,et al.  Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale , 2011 .

[9]  C. Esposito,et al.  Reconstruction of a destructive debris‐flow event via numerical modeling: the role of valley geometry on flow dynamics , 2015 .

[10]  Pietro Aleotti,et al.  A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures , 2004 .

[11]  M. Rossi,et al.  The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update , 2008 .

[12]  V. Perrone,et al.  THE EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE CALABRIA-PELORITANI ARC IN A SEMIQUANTITATIVE PALYNSPASTIC RESTORATION , 1982 .

[13]  Lorella Montrasio,et al.  Stability Analysis Of Soil-slip , 2000 .

[14]  Alexander Brenning,et al.  Evaluating machine learning and statistical prediction techniques for landslide susceptibility modeling , 2015, Comput. Geosci..

[15]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  A review of erosion and sediment transport models , 2003, Environ. Model. Softw..

[16]  Fabio Ciravegna,et al.  Evaluating machine learning for information extraction , 2005, ICML.

[17]  B. Collins,et al.  STABILITY ANALYSES OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES , 2004 .

[18]  Keith Beven,et al.  Including spatially variable effective soil depths in TOPMODEL , 1997 .

[19]  W. Z. Savage,et al.  TRIGRS - A Fortran Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0 , 2002 .

[20]  Yang Hong,et al.  Towards an early‐warning system for global landslides triggered by rainfall and earthquake , 2007 .

[21]  Richard M. Iverson,et al.  Landslide triggering by rain infiltration , 2000 .

[22]  Rex L. Baum,et al.  A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration , 2003 .

[23]  N. Caine,et al.  The Rainfall Intensity - Duration Control of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows , 1980 .

[24]  A. Trigila,et al.  Comparison of Logistic Regression and Random Forests techniques for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in Giampilieri (NE Sicily, Italy) , 2015 .

[25]  Harianto Rahardjo,et al.  SHEAR-STRENGTH CHARACTERISTICS OF A RESIDUAL SOIL , 1995 .

[26]  Renzo Rosso,et al.  A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding , 2006 .

[27]  D. Montgomery,et al.  A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding , 1994 .

[28]  J. Corominas,et al.  Reconstructing recent landslide activity in relation to rainfall in the Llobregat River basin, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain , 1999 .

[29]  Yang Hong,et al.  Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model , 2012, Environmental Earth Sciences.

[30]  Roberto Rudari,et al.  A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy , 2014, Natural Hazards.

[31]  M. Schaap,et al.  ROSETTA: a computer program for estimating soil hydraulic parameters with hierarchical pedotransfer functions , 2001 .

[32]  Florian Pappenberger,et al.  Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe , 2012 .

[33]  A. Brenning,et al.  Integrating physical and empirical landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models , 2011 .

[34]  S. Catalano,et al.  Late Quaternary uplift of northeastern Sicily: relation with the active normal faulting deformation , 2003 .

[35]  Fausto Guzzetti,et al.  Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy , 2010 .

[36]  Roberto Giannecchini,et al.  Critical rainfall thresholds for triggering shallow landslides in the Serchio River Valley (Tuscany, Italy). , 2012 .

[37]  C. Monaco,et al.  Recent and active tectonics in the Calabrian arc (Southern Italy) , 1995 .

[38]  Lorella Montrasio,et al.  A model for triggering mechanisms of shallow landslides , 2008 .

[39]  F. Guzzetti,et al.  Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach , 2013, 1305.4803.

[40]  M. Russo,et al.  L'Arco calabro-peloritano nell'orogene appenninico-maghrebide , 1976 .

[41]  Carlo Esposito,et al.  Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: An example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy) , 2015 .

[42]  Delwyn G. Fredlund,et al.  The relationship of the unsaturated soil shear strength to the soil-water characteristic curve , 1996 .

[43]  Giuseppe T. Aronica,et al.  Assessment and mapping of debris-flow risk in a small catchment in eastern Sicily through integrated numerical simulations and GIS , 2012 .

[44]  Lorella Montrasio,et al.  Physical and numerical modelling of shallow landslides , 2016, Landslides.

[45]  Antonino Cancelliere,et al.  Derivation and evaluation of landslide-triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach , 2014 .

[46]  G. D. Guidi,et al.  Active faulting and seismicity along the Siculo–Calabrian Rift Zone (Southern Italy) , 2008 .

[47]  Marco Borga,et al.  The influence of grid resolution on the prediction of natural and road-related shallow landslides , 2014 .

[48]  S. Kershaw,et al.  Holocene tectonic uplift patterns in northeastern Sicily: evidence from marine notches in coastal outcrops , 2000 .

[49]  Thom Bogaard,et al.  The Round Robin test on landslide hydrological modeling at IWL2013 , 2014 .