Assessing variables of regional reanalysis data sets relevant for modelling small-scale renewable energy systems

Abstract Data that allow the characterization of short-term and inter-annual variability of renewable energy resources availability are becoming highly valuable for energy system modellers. Global reanalysis data provide long time series of records without gaps and full spatial coverage at no cost for the final user. However, these exhibit coarse spatial resolution. The COSMO-REA6 and COSMOS-REA2 regional reanalysis for Europe overcome this limitation by increasing the resolution of the reanalysis to six and two kilometres respectively. This work presents an assessment of solar radiation and wind speed variables of these data sets that were available to the public in January 2018. This assessment is performed using data of the Bavarian agro-meteorological network and the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Eight accuracy indicators for hourly data in the period 1995–2015 are calculated. Widely used indicators such as the Pearson's correlation coefficient in some cases reach values above 0.82 for wind speeds and above 0.92 for global horizontal irradiance. The mean bias error is consistently better than ± 9.3 W/m2 for the full set of irradiance data, ±25.1 W/m2 for only day-time irradiance data and is, with a few exceptions, lower than ± 1 m/s for the wind speed data.

[1]  Jordan G. Powers,et al.  A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2 , 2005 .

[2]  S. Hawkins High resolution reanalysis of wind speeds over the British Isles for wind energy integration , 2012 .

[3]  D. Aminou MSG's SEVIRI instrument , 2002 .

[4]  Robert P. Broadwater,et al.  Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting , 2014 .

[5]  Ana M. Gracia-Amillo,et al.  Evaluation of global horizontal irradiance estimates from ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 reanalyses using ground and satellite-based data , 2018 .

[6]  Susanne Crewell,et al.  Towards a high‐resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX domain , 2015 .

[7]  Jean-Louis Roujean,et al.  Near real‐time provision of downwelling shortwave radiation estimates derived from satellite observations , 2008 .

[8]  Amaro O. Pereira,et al.  The role of wind power and solar PV in reducing risks in the Brazilian hydro-thermal power system , 2016 .

[9]  P. Štěpánek,et al.  The variability of maximum wind gusts in the Czech Republic between 1961 and 2014 , 2017 .

[10]  Stephan Hoyer,et al.  xarray: N-D labeled arrays and datasets in Python , 2017 .

[11]  Travis E. Oliphant,et al.  Python for Scientific Computing , 2007, Computing in Science & Engineering.

[12]  Bernhard Geiger,et al.  Satellite Application Facilities irradiance products: hourly time step comparison and validation over Europe , 2009 .

[13]  Tomas Cebecauer,et al.  Spatial disaggregation of satellite-derived irradiance using a high-resolution digital elevation model , 2010 .

[14]  Uang,et al.  The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis , 2010 .

[15]  R. E. Bredesen,et al.  Long-term correction of wind measurements. State-of-the-art, guidelines and future work. , 2013 .

[16]  Iain Staffell,et al.  How does wind farm performance decline with age , 2014 .

[17]  Luis Ramirez Camargo,et al.  Comparison of satellite imagery based data, reanalysis data and statistical methods for mapping global solar radiation in the Lerma Valley (Salta, Argentina) , 2016 .

[18]  Wolfgang Dorner,et al.  Integrating satellite imagery-derived data and GIS-based solar radiation algorithms to map solar radiation in high temporal and spatial resolutions for the province of Salta, Argentina , 2016, Remote Sensing.

[19]  L. F. Zarzalejo,et al.  Solar resources estimation combining digital terrain models and satellite images techniques , 2010 .

[20]  Zhiwei Shen,et al.  Designing an index for assessing wind energy potential , 2015 .

[21]  H. Hersbach,et al.  The ERA5 Atmospheric Reanalysis. , 2016 .

[22]  Susanne Crewell,et al.  A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation;A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation , 2017 .

[23]  Jesús Polo,et al.  Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results , 2009 .

[24]  S. Janjai,et al.  Development of microscale wind maps for Phaluay Island, Thailand , 2012 .

[25]  Stefan Wilbert,et al.  Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications , 2015 .

[26]  Dirk J. Cannon,et al.  Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain , 2015 .

[27]  John S. Kimball,et al.  Evaluation of MERRA Land Surface Estimates in Preparation for the Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission , 2011 .

[28]  S. Pfenninger,et al.  Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data , 2016 .

[29]  Paul Poli,et al.  The ERA-Interim archive, version 2.0 , 2011 .

[30]  John Boland,et al.  Preliminary survey on site-adaptation techniques for satellite-derived and reanalysis solar radiation datasets , 2016 .

[31]  R. Inman,et al.  Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration , 2013 .

[32]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[33]  Amaro O. Pereira,et al.  An optimal mix of solar PV, wind and hydro power for a low-carbon electricity supply in Brazil , 2016 .

[34]  Viorel Badescu,et al.  The CMSAF hourly solar irradiance database (product CM54): Accuracy and bias corrections with illustrations for Romania (south-eastern Europe) , 2013 .

[35]  Gerhard Adrian Parallel processing in regional climatology: The parallel version of the "Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model" (KAMM) , 1999, Parallel Comput..

[36]  Viorel Badescu,et al.  Accuracy of CM-SAF solar irradiance incident on horizontal surface , 2013, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[37]  R. Müller,et al.  A new solar radiation database for estimating PV performance in Europe and Africa , 2012 .

[38]  S. Schubert,et al.  MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications , 2011 .

[39]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[40]  Michel Journée,et al.  Improving the spatio-temporal distribution of surface solar radiation data by merging ground and satellite measurements , 2010 .

[41]  Luis Ramirez Camargo,et al.  Technical, Economical and Social Assessment of Photovoltaics in the Frame of the Net-Metering Law for the Province of Salta, Argentina , 2016 .

[42]  María Amparo Gilabert,et al.  Validation of daily global solar irradiation images from MSG over Spain , 2013 .

[43]  Susanne Crewell,et al.  Bias correction of a novel European reanalysis data set for solar energy applications , 2018 .

[44]  N. Kalthoff,et al.  Evaluation of wind energy potential over Thailand by using an atmospheric mesoscale model and a GIS approach , 2014 .

[45]  M. Bosilovich,et al.  Evaluation of the Reanalysis Products from GSFC, NCEP, and ECMWF Using Flux Tower Observations , 2012 .

[46]  Zekâi Şen,et al.  Innovative Wind Energy Models and Prediction Methodologies , 2013 .

[47]  L. Wald,et al.  Comparison between meteorological re-analyses from ERA-Interim and MERRA and measurements of daily solar irradiation at surface , 2015 .

[48]  M. Barrett,et al.  Evaluating the accuracy of CFSR reanalysis hourly wind speed forecasts for the UK, using in situ measurements and geographical information , 2015 .