PLANNING FOR OPTIONS AND COMMITMENTS: AN APPROACH TO TRANSPORT PLANNING IN UNCERTAINTY

Much transport planning is concerned with proposals of wide-ranging implications that are to be implemented over an extended period. During this time the context and the decision makers may change, and the original objective may no longer be valid. The paper outlines an approach to planning and decision making in such a situation of uncertainty. The approach requires inventing alternative futures for the system as a whole, developing scenarios for proposed intervention and, after evaluation, formulating time-limited commitments and credible options that are worth retaining. The process is incremental and open ended and involves collective learning and selective decision making in which the only firm plans are those that are actually committed. The approach, in a greatly simplified form, is illustrated by a proposal to construct a major road in an inner area of Sydney, Australia. Four alternative futures are invented and examined to determine what strategic options seem worth retaining for the system as a whole. The results may not only show which aspects of the new road require consideration, but also what options are available for its introduction and the kind of commitment that can be made.