Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization

This paper is a result of a research with the primary purpose of extending Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling frameworks to include the effects of organizational factors as the deeper, more fundamental causes of accidents and incidents. There have been significant improvements in the sophistication of quantitative methods of safety and risk assessment, but the progress on techniques most suitable for organizational safety risk frameworks has been limited. The focus of this paper is on the choice of “representational schemes†and “techniques.†A methodology for selecting appropriate candidate techniques and their integration in the form of a “hybrid†approach is proposed. Then an example is given through an integration of System Dynamics (SD), Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), Event Sequence Diagram (ESD), and Fault Tree (FT) in order to demonstrate the feasibility and value of hybrid techniques. The proposed hybrid approach integrates deterministic and probabilistic modeling perspectives, and provides a flexible risk management tool for complex socio-technical systems. An application of the hybrid technique is provided in the aviation safety domain, focusing on airline maintenance systems. The example demonstrates how the hybrid method can be used to analyze the dynamic effects of organizational factors on system risk.

[1]  Carol-Sophie Smidts,et al.  Dynamic Reliability: Future Directions, Proceedings of the fourth workshop on dynamic reliability , 2000 .

[2]  Andrew Hale,et al.  MODELLING OF SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS , 1997 .

[3]  Ali Mosleh,et al.  Model-based human reliability analysis: prospects and requirements , 2004, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[4]  Barry Kirwan,et al.  Development of a Hazard and Operability-based method for identifying safety management vulnerabilities in high risk systems , 1998 .

[5]  Zahra Mohaghegh-Ahmadabadi,et al.  On the theoretical foundations and principles of organizational safety risk analysis , 2007 .

[6]  S. Kozlowski,et al.  Multilevel Theory, Research, a n d M e t h o d s i n Organizations Foundations, Extensions, and New Directions , 2022 .

[7]  D. Zohar,et al.  A multilevel model of safety climate: cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. , 2005, The Journal of applied psychology.

[8]  Stephen F. Roehrig,et al.  Path analysis and probabilistic networks: analogous concepts , 1993, [1993] Proceedings of the Twenty-sixth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[9]  Esteban L. Biondi.  Organizational factors in the reliability assessment of offshore systems , 1998 .

[10]  Samuel B. Bacharach,et al.  Organizational Theories: Some Criteria for Evaluation , 1989 .

[11]  David A. Bella,et al.  Organized Complexity in Human Affairs: The Tobacco Industry , 1997 .

[12]  Erik Hollnagel,et al.  Cognitive reliability and error analysis method : CREAM , 1998 .

[13]  Henry Mintzberg,et al.  Structure in Fives: Designing Effective Organizations , 1983 .

[14]  David L. Cooke,et al.  The dynamics and control of operational risk , 2004 .

[15]  Richard M McCabe.  Why airlines succeed or fail : a system dynamics synthesis , 1998 .

[16]  Y. Shoham.  Introduction to Multi-Agent Systems , 2002 .

[17]  D. E. Embrey,et al.  Incorporating management and organisational factors into probabilistic safety assessment , 1992 .

[18]  Randal E. Bryant,et al.  Graph-Based Algorithms for Boolean Function Manipulation , 1986, IEEE Transactions on Computers.

[19]  George Apostolakis,et al.  The work process analysis model (WPAM) , 1994 .

[20]  M. Walton.  The Deming management method , 1986 .

[21]  C. Y. Lee.  Representation of switching circuits by binary-decision programs , 1959 .

[22]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Business dynamics : systems thinking and modelling for acomplex world , 2002 .

[23]  Luigi Portinale,et al.  Comparing Fault Trees and Bayesian Networks for Dependability Analysis , 1999, SAFECOMP.

[24]  David A. Marca,et al.  SADT: structured analysis and design technique , 1987 .

[25]  R. L. Brune,et al.  Peer-review study of the draft handbook for human-reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear-power-plant applications, NUREG/CR-1278 , 1983 .

[26]  Tim Bedford,et al.  Safety and Reliability , 2003 .

[27]  M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,et al.  Human and management factors in probabilistic risk analysis: the SAM approach and observations from recent applications , 1996 .

[28]  Karl E. Weick,et al.  Managing the unexpected: Assuring high performance in an age of complexity. , 2001 .

[29]  A. Rauzy,et al.  Exact and truncated computations of prime implicants of coherent and non-coherent fault trees within Aralia , 1997 .

[30]  Bruce Hannon,et al.  Dynamic Modeling , 2001, Modeling Dynamic Systems.

[31]  D. Whetten.  What Constitutes a Theoretical Contribution , 1989 .

[32]  Victor F. Weisskopf,et al.  Reactor safety study , 1976 .

[33]  Bruce Hannon,et al.  Dynamic Modeling , 1994, Springer US.

[34]  Massimo Marraffa,et al.  Organizational learning II: Theory, method and practice , 1998 .

[35]  Poong-Hyun Seong,et al.  Reliability graph with general gates: an intuitive and practical method for system reliability analysis , 2002, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[36]  Barry Kirwan,et al.  Nuclear Action Reliability Assessment (NARA): A Data-Based HRA Tool , 2005 .

[37]  Barry Kirwan,et al.  Nuclear action reliability assessment (NARA): a data-based HRA tool , 2005 .

[38]  Gustavo Stubrich.  The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization , 1993 .

[39]  J. Rudolph,et al.  Learning from experience in high-hazard organizations , 2002 .

[40]  Richard J. Mayer,et al.  Information Integration for Concurrent Engineering (IICE) IDEF3 Process Description Capture Method Report , 1992 .

[41]  Roslyn M. Sinnamon,et al.  Improved efficiency in qualitative fault tree analysis , 1997 .

[42]  H. Simon,et al.  Spurious Correlation: A Causal Interpretation* , 1954 .

[43]  A Neal,et al.  Perceptions of safety at work: a framework for linking safety climate to safety performance, knowledge, and motivation. , 2000, Journal of occupational health psychology.

[44]  James T. Reason,et al.  Managing the risks of organizational accidents , 1997 .

[45]  R. P. McDonald,et al.  Structural Equations with Latent Variables , 1989 .

[46]  Neal M. Ashkanasy,et al.  Organizational culture and climate , 2002 .

[47]  J. Sterman.  Business Dynamics , 2000 .

[48]  K. Lewin.  Field theory in social science , 1951 .

[49]  Moosung Jae,et al.  A Quantitative Assessment of Organizational Factors Affecting Safety Using System Dynamics Model , 2004 .

[50]  Ali Mosleh,et al.  Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents: Part 1: Overview of the IDAC Model , 2007, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[51]  Edward I. Altman,et al.  FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY , 1968 .

[52]  Karlene H. Roberts,et al.  The Self-Designing High-Reliability Organization: Aircraft Carrier Flight Operations at Sea , 1987 .

[53]  Roslyn M. Sinnamon,et al.  Improved accuracy in quantitative fault tree analysis , 1997 .

[54]  Martin Diergardt.  Modeling scenarios for analyzing the risks of complex computer based information systems , 2006 .

[55]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Influence Diagrams , 2005, Decis. Anal..

[56]  Sheldon B. Akers,et al.  Binary Decision Diagrams , 1978, IEEE Transactions on Computers.

[57]  Donald A. Schön,et al.  Organizational Learning II: Theory, Method, and Practice , 1995 .

[58]  W. Burke,et al.  A Causal Model of Organizational Performance and Change , 1992 .

[59]  Antoine Rauzy,et al.  New algorithms for fault trees analysis , 1993 .

[60]  Ali Mosleh,et al.  Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents: Part 5: Dynamic probabilistic simulation of the IDAC model , 2007, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[61]  M. D. Cooper.  Towards a model of safety culture , 2000 .

[62]  George Apostolakis,et al.  Incorporating organizational factors into risk assessment through the analysis of work processes , 1994 .

[63]  Roger M. Cooke,et al.  Causal modeling using Bayesian belief nets for integrated safety at airports , 2004 .

[64]  Luis Enrique Sucar,et al.  Bayesian Networks for Reliability Analysis of Complex Systems , 1998, IBERAMIA.

[65]  N. Siu,et al.  Risk assessment for dynamic systems: An overview , 1994 .

[66]  Patrick Brézillon,et al.  Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence , 1999 .

[67]  Mohammad Modarres.  Probabilistic Risk Assessment , 2008 .

[68]  Nancy G. Leveson,et al.  A new accident model for engineering safer systems , 2004 .

[69]  Zahra Mohaghegh,et al.  Multi-dimensional measurement perspective in modeling organizational safety risk , 2007 .

[70]  Ernest J. Henley,et al.  Reliability engineering and risk assessment , 1981 .

[71]  A. D. Swain,et al.  Handbook of human-reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications. Final report , 1983 .

[72]  Jens Rasmussen,et al.  Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem , 1997 .

[73]  Dipti Srinivasan,et al.  An Introduction to Multi-Agent Systems , 2010 .

[74]  T. Cox,et al.  The structure of employee attitudes to safety: A European example , 1991 .

[75]  A. Ford.  Modeling the Environment: An Introduction To System Dynamics Modeling Of Environmental Systems , 1999 .

[76]  S. Kozlowski,et al.  Multilevel Theory, Research, and Methods in Organizations: Foundations, Extensions, and New Directions , 2000 .

[77]  Carol Smidts,et al.  QRAS - the Quantitative Risk Assessment System , 2002, Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. 2002 Proceedings (Cat. No.02CH37318).

[78]  C. Schriesheim.  Causal Analysis: Assumptions, Models, and Data , 1982 .

[79]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis , 1989 .

[80]  Zahra Mohaghegh,et al.  Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment of complex socio-technical systems: Principles and theoretical foundations , 2009 .