In Korea, rapid industrialization and economic growth have led to serious problems including reduced open space, environmental degradation, traffic congestion, and urban sprawl. These problems have been exacerbated by the absence of effective conservation and governance, and have resulted in various social conflicts. This study analyzed ecosystem service value over the past 20 years using previously reported coefficients. In addition, using logistic regression, we projected the land-cover distribution in 2020 according to the Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map and analyzed ecosystem service value based on land use changes. Between 1985 and 2005, built-up areas had increased threefold. In the same time period, forest, grassland, and wetland areas decreased. Because of these trends, ecosystem service value decreased from 7,300 million USD to 6,525 million USD. By analyzing land-cover distribution with 2020 land-cover maps, we determined that farmland, grassland, and bare land areas had declined by approximately 24.3%. The 2020 land-cover map with considering ECVAM showed a decrease of 89 million USD in ecosystem service value, while the map without considering ECVAM showed a decrease of 165 million USD. The results of this analysis indicate that environmentally sustainable systems and urban development must be applied to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection.
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