Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change

Solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiances are reconstructed annually from 1610 to the present. This epoch includes the Maunder Minimum of anomalously low solar activity (circa 1645-1715) and the subsequent increase to the high levels of the present Modern Maximum. In this reconstruction, the Schwabe (11-year) irradiance cycle and a longer term variability component are determined separately, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre-industrial period from 1610 to 1800, implying a predominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970.

[1]  John A. Eddy,et al.  The Maunder Minimum , 1976, Science.

[2]  J. Lean,et al.  Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance , 1989, Science.

[3]  S. Baliunas,et al.  Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars , 1990, Nature.

[4]  Judith L. Lean,et al.  An Empirical Model of Total Solar Irradiance Variation Between 1874 and 1988 , 1990, Science.

[5]  H. Hudson,et al.  The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle , 1991, Nature.

[6]  George C. Reid,et al.  Solar total irradiance variations and the global sea surface temperature record , 1991 .

[7]  E. Friis-christensen,et al.  Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate , 1991, Science.

[8]  J. Lean,et al.  Estimating the Sun's radiative output during the Maunder Minimum , 1992 .

[9]  M. Schlesinger,et al.  Implications for global warming of intercycle solar irradiance variations , 1992, Nature.

[10]  T. Wigley,et al.  Solar cycle length, greenhouse forcing and global climate , 1992, Nature.

[11]  J. Lean,et al.  THE SUN IN A NON-CYCLING STATE , 1992 .

[12]  R. Bradley,et al.  'Little Ice Age' summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends , 1993 .

[13]  Douglas V. Hoyt,et al.  A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700-1992 , 1993 .

[14]  M. Stuiver,et al.  Sun, ocean, climate and atmospheric 14CO2 : an evaluation of causal and spectral relationships , 1993 .

[15]  J. Overpeck,et al.  Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: Climate model results , 1993 .

[16]  Michael E. Mann,et al.  Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales , 1994 .

[17]  K. Schatten,et al.  The one hundredth year of Rudolf Wolf's death: Do we have the correct reconstruction of solar activity? , 1994 .

[18]  Leonard A. Smith,et al.  Investigating the origins and significance of low‐frequency modes of climate variability , 1994 .

[19]  David Parker,et al.  Interdecadal changes of surface temperature since the late nineteenth century , 1994 .

[20]  J. D. Haigh,et al.  The role of stratospheric ozone in modulating the solar radiative forcing of climate , 1994, Nature.

[21]  M. Suter,et al.  Solar Variability Traced by Cosmogenic Isotopes , 1994 .

[22]  Robert Benjamin Lee,et al.  Long-term total solar irradiance variability during sunspot cycle 22 , 1995 .

[23]  D. Rind,et al.  Modeling the effects of UV variability and the QBO on the troposphere-stratosphere system. Part I: The middle atmosphere , 1995 .

[24]  J. Lean,et al.  On the solar ultraviolet spectral irradiance during the Maunder Minimum , 1995 .