Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed, Montana, U.S.A. 1

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow-dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high-elevation watershed with approximately 85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression-based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.

[1]  Donald L. Tennant.  Instream Flow Regimens for Fish, Wildlife, Recreation and Related Environmental Resources , 1976 .

[2]  J. Arnold,et al.  AUTOMATED METHODS FOR ESTIMATING BASEFLOW AND GROUND WATER RECHARGE FROM STREAMFLOW RECORDS 1 , 1999 .

[3]  John W. Pomeroy,et al.  Prediction of seasonal snow accumulation in cold climate forests , 2002 .

[4]  J. Garbrecht,et al.  HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION OF THE LITTLE WASHITA RIVER EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED USING SWAT 1 , 2003 .

[5]  W. Cao,et al.  Multi‐variable and multi‐site calibration and validation of SWAT in a large mountainous catchment with high spatial variability , 2006 .

[6]  Raghavan Srinivasan,et al.  INTEGRATION OF WATERSHED TOOLS AND SWAT MODEL INTO BASINS 1 , 2002 .

[7]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  APPLICATION OF A WATERSHED MODEL TO EVALUATE MANAGEMENT EFFECTS ON POINT AND NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION , 2001 .

[8]  Assefa M. Melesse,et al.  EVALUATION OF THE SWAT MODEL'S SNOWMELT HYDROLOGY IN A NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WATERSHED , 2005 .

[9]  Gilbert T. Bernhardt,et al.  A comprehensive surface-groundwater flow model , 1993 .

[10]  Charles A. Troendle,et al.  The Effect of Timber Harvest on the Fool Creek Watershed, 30 Years Later , 1985 .

[11]  Indrajeet Chaubey,et al.  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, CALIBRATION, AND VALIDATIONS FOR A MULTISITE AND MULTIVARIABLE SWAT MODEL 1 , 2005 .

[12]  S. Woods,et al.  Snow accumulation in thinned lodgepole pine stands, Montana, USA , 2006 .

[13]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions , 2007 .

[14]  Raghavan Srinivasan,et al.  SUBWATERSHED SPATIAL ANALYSIS TOOL: DISCRETIZATION OF A DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGIC MODEL BY STATISTICAL CRITERIA 1 , 2002 .

[15]  J. Pomeroy,et al.  Physical Properties of Snow , 2010 .

[16]  N. Crawford,et al.  DIGITAL SIMULATION IN HYDROLOGY' STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL 4 , 1966 .

[17]  Steven T. Bednarz,et al.  LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART II: MODEL APPLICATION 1 , 1998 .

[18]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins , 1985 .

[19]  W. G. Knisel,et al.  GLEAMS: Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems , 1987 .

[20]  Bernard A. Engel,et al.  HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERIZATION OF WATERSHEDS FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION USING SWAT 1 , 1998 .

[21]  Raghavan Srinivasan,et al.  Effect of watershed subdivision on simulation runoff and fine sediment yield , 1997 .

[22]  David R. Miller.  Forest stand dynamics , 1997 .

[23]  Willy Bauwens,et al.  Multiobjective autocalibration for semidistributed water quality models , 2003 .

[24]  R. Burns,et al.  Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers; 2. Hardwoods , 1990 .

[25]  C. Kendall,et al.  Tracing sources of nitrate in snowmelt runoff using a high‐resolution isotopic technique , 2004 .

[26]  J. Arnold,et al.  SWAT2000: current capabilities and research opportunities in applied watershed modelling , 2005 .

[27]  Raghavan Srinivasan,et al.  INTEGRATION OF A BASIN‐SCALE WATER QUALITY MODEL WITH GIS , 1994 .

[28]  Peter M. Allen,et al.  Automated Base Flow Separation and Recession Analysis Techniques , 1995 .

[29]  John D. Stednick,et al.  MONITORING THE EFFECTS OF TIMBER HARVEST ON ANNUAL WATER YIELD , 1996 .

[30]  N. Allen Binns,et al.  Quantification of Fluvial Trout Habitat in Wyoming , 1979 .

[31]  Ronald J. Hall,et al.  Ground and remote estimation of leaf area index in Rocky Mountain forest stands, Kananaskis, Alberta , 2003 .

[32]  J. Hewlett,et al.  A REVIEW OF CATCHMENT EXPERIMENTS TO DETERMINE THE EFFECT OF VEGETATION CHANGES ON WATER YIELD AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION , 1982 .

[33]  Raghavan Srinivasan,et al.  A GIS‐Coupled Hydrological Model System for the Watershed Assessment of Agricultural Nonpoint and Point Sources of Pollution , 2004, Trans. GIS.

[34]  G. H. Leavesley,et al.  Precipitation-runoff modeling system; user's manual , 1983 .

[35]  Hans-Georg Frede,et al.  SWAT-G, a version of SWAT99.2 modified for application to low mountain range catchments , 2002 .

[36]  M. Jha,et al.  CLIMATE CHHANGE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT ON UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOWS USING SWAT 1 , 2006 .

[37]  C. Troendle.  The Potential for Water Yield Augmentation from Forest Management in the Rocky Mountain Region , 1983 .

[38]  R. Srinivasan,et al.  A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models , 2006 .

[39]  V. Singh,et al.  Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology , 1995 .

[40]  R. King,et al.  THE EFFECT OF PARTIAL AND CLEARCUTTING ON STREAMFLOW AT DEADHORSE CREEK, COLORADO , 1987 .

[41]  J. Arnold,et al.  Development of a snowfall-snowmelt routine for mountainous terrain for the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) , 2002 .

[42]  Drainage Division,et al.  Criteria for Evaluation of Watershed Models , 1993 .

[43]  L. Gottschalk,et al.  Validation of a distributed hydrological model against spatial observations , 1999 .

[44]  G. Flerchinger,et al.  Groundwater response to snowmelt in a mountainous watershed , 1991 .

[45]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management , 2003, Environ. Model. Softw..

[46]  Irving M. Klotz,et al.  Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology , 1952, The Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine.

[47]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and noncommensurable measures of information , 1998 .

[48]  David R. Maidment,et al.  Handbook of Hydrology , 1993 .

[49]  A. Plamondon,et al.  Snowmelt runoff pathways in a boreal forest hillslope, the role of pipe throughflow , 1987 .

[50]  Richard H. Waring,et al.  Forest Ecosystems: Analysis at Multiple Scales , 1985 .

[51]  Misgana K. Muleta,et al.  Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model , 2005 .

[52]  H. Marchant.  Snow Ecology: An Interdisciplinary Examination of Snow-Covered Ecosystems , 2001 .

[53]  R. Swanson,et al.  Snow accumulation and melt in small forest openings in Alberta , 1978 .

[54]  Martyn P. Clark,et al.  STEP WISE, MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN 1 , 2006 .

[55]  J. Pomeroy,et al.  Estimating areal snowmelt infiltration into frozen soils , 2001 .

[56]  John R. Williams,et al.  LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART I: MODEL DEVELOPMENT 1 , 1998 .

[57]  Michael J. Oimoen,et al.  The National Elevation Dataset , 2002 .

[58]  S. Sorooshian,et al.  Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall‐runoff models , 1992 .

[59]  James R. Anderson,et al.  A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data , 1976 .

[60]  J. A. WERGER,et al.  Forest canopies , 2004, Vegetatio.

[61]  Gerald N. Flerchinger,et al.  Impacts of spatially and temporally varying snowmelt on subsurface flow in a mountainous watershed: 1. Snowmelt simulation , 1994 .

[62]  Ramakrishna R. Nemani,et al.  Measurement and remote sensing of LAI in Rocky Mountain montane ecosystems , 1997 .

[63]  Jeffrey G. Arnold,et al.  Automatic calibration of a distributed catchment model , 2001 .

[64]  Hannes Flühler,et al.  MEASUREMENT OF FROST‐INDUCED SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN A FOREST SOIL , 1996 .

[65]  Mazdak Arabi,et al.  ROLE OF WATERSHED SUBDIVISION ON MODELING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES WITH SWAT 1 , 2006 .

[66]  Kangsheng Wu,et al.  EVALUATION OF THE APPLICABILITY OF THE SWAT MODEL FOR COASTAL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1 , 2006 .

[67]  J. Arnold,et al.  VALIDATION OF THE SWAT MODEL ON A LARGE RWER BASIN WITH POINT AND NONPOINT SOURCES 1 , 2001 .

[68]  D. Tinker.  :Mimicking Nature's Fire: Restoring Fire-Prone Forests in the West , 2008 .

[69]  J. Nash,et al.  River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆ , 1970 .

[70]  Assefa M. Melesse,et al.  EFFECTS OF STATSGO AND SSURGO AS INPUTS ON SWAT MODEL'S SNOWMELT SIMULATION 1 , 2006 .

[71]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models , 1994 .

[72]  Stephen R. Workman,et al.  STATISTICAL PROCEDURES FOR EVALUATING DAILY AND MONTHLY HYDROLOGIC MODEL PREDICTIONS , 2004 .