Probabilistic Contingency Tables: An Improvement to Verify Probability Forecasts

AbstractThe 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) records daily rain and lightning probabilistic forecasts and the associated binary event outcomes. Subsequently, they evaluate forecast performance and det...

[1]  Ian Mason.  On Reducing Probability Forecasts to Yes/No Forecasts , 1979 .

[2]  Tempei Hashino,et al.  Sampling Uncertainty and Confidence Intervals for the Brier Score and Brier Skill Score , 2008 .

[3]  T. Casey,et al.  Verification of Categorical Probability Forecasts , 2000 .

[4]  Ian T. Jolliffe,et al.  Revised “LEPS” Scores for Assessing Climate Model Simulations and Long-Range Forecasts , 1996 .

[5]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  What Is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting , 1993 .

[6]  Sarah A. Gold,et al.  Effect of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables to Modify Forecast Predictions , 2019 .

[7]  Simon J. Mason,et al.  Understanding forecast verification statistics , 2008 .

[8]  Patrick Royston,et al.  The cost of dichotomising continuous variables , 2006, BMJ : British Medical Journal.

[9]  W. Briggs.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[10]  A. J. Travis.  Utilizing Four Dimensional Lightning and Dual-Polarization Radar to Develop Lightning Initiation Forecast Guidance , 2015 .

[11]  Richard E. Orville,et al.  Thunderstorm Characteristics of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida: A Study of Lightning Initiation Signatures as Indicated by the WSR-88D , 1999 .

[12]  A. H. Murphy.  The Finley Affair: A Signal Event in the History of Forecast Verification , 1996 .

[13]  Harold E. Brooks,et al.  Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings , 2018, Weather and Forecasting.

[14]  Patrick King,et al.  Investigating the Potential of Using Radar Echo Reflectivity to Nowcast Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Initiation over Southern Ontario , 2010 .

[15]  Daniel O. Katuzienski.  Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods across Southwest Utah , 2019 .

[16]  I. Jolliffe,et al.  Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science , 2011 .

[17]  Daniel S. Wilks,et al.  Sampling distributions of the Brier score and Brier skill score under serial dependence , 2010 .