Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections(2020–2050)

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multiyear ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last eight years. The multimodel consensus over the 2020–2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5–10 % per decade (or 15–30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

[1]  W. Merryfield,et al.  Influences of Temperature and Precipitation on Historical and Future Snowpack Variability over the Northern Hemisphere in the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model , 2017 .

[2]  Alex Hall,et al.  Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought , 2017 .

[3]  Teruo Aoki,et al.  A 38-year (1978–2015) Northern Hemisphere daily snow cover extent product derived using consistent objective criteria from satellite-borne optical sensors , 2017 .

[4]  C. Haas,et al.  Assessment of Snow, Sea Ice, and Related Climate Processes in Canada's Earth-System Model and Climate Prediction System , 2017 .

[5]  C. Fletcher,et al.  Quantifying the Uncertainty in Historical and Future Simulations of Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover , 2016 .

[6]  Chris Derksen,et al.  LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome. , 2016 .

[7]  Courtenay Strong,et al.  Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in western U.S. snowpack variability , 2016 .

[8]  Stephen E. L. Howell,et al.  Regional variability of a projected sea ice‐free Arctic during the summer months , 2016 .

[9]  C. Deser,et al.  Reduced Risk of North American Cold Extremes due to Continued Arctic Sea Ice Loss , 2015 .

[10]  Duncan J. Wingham,et al.  Increased Arctic sea ice volume after anomalously low melting in 2013 , 2015 .

[11]  David A. Robinson,et al.  A long-term Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent data record for climate studies and monitoring , 2015 .

[12]  C. Derksen,et al.  Multiyear ice replenishment in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: 1997–2013 , 2015 .

[13]  C. Kobayashi,et al.  The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics , 2015 .

[14]  D. Barber,et al.  An Update on the Ice Climatology of the Hudson Bay System , 2014 .

[15]  E. Carmack,et al.  Deterioration of perennial sea ice in the Beaufort Gyre from 2003 to 2012 and its impact on the oceanic freshwater cycle , 2014 .

[16]  S. Farrell,et al.  Arctic sea ice conditions in spring 2009–2013 prior to melt , 2013 .

[17]  E. Barnes.  Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes , 2013 .

[18]  Chris Derksen,et al.  Recent changes in the exchange of sea ice between the Arctic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago , 2013 .

[19]  Chris Derksen,et al.  Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing? , 2013 .

[20]  Aaron Boone,et al.  Simulation of Northern Eurasian Local Snow Depth, Mass, and Density Using a Detailed Snowpack Model and Meteorological Reanalyses , 2013 .

[21]  S. Vavrus,et al.  Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes , 2012 .

[22]  W. Emery,et al.  Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011 , 2011 .

[23]  J. Thepaut,et al.  The ERA‐Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system , 2011 .

[24]  K. Denman,et al.  Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases , 2011 .

[25]  J. Yackel,et al.  Origins and Levels of Seasonal Forecast Skill for Sea Ice in Hudson Bay Using Canonical Correlation Analysis , 2011 .

[26]  David A. Robinson,et al.  Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover variability and change over 1922–2010 including an assessment of uncertainty , 2010 .

[27]  P. Kushner,et al.  The role of linear interference in the Annular Mode response to extratropical surface forcing , 2010 .

[28]  R. Kwok,et al.  Contribution of melt in the Beaufort Sea to the decline in Arctic multiyear sea ice coverage: 1993–2009 , 2010 .

[29]  Hajo Eicken,et al.  Synoptic airborne thickness surveys reveal state of Arctic sea ice cover , 2010 .

[30]  S. Gerland,et al.  Climate Change and the Cryosphere : Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic - SWIPA , 2009 .

[31]  Ron Kwok,et al.  Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958–2008 , 2009 .

[32]  Philip W. Mote,et al.  The Response of Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover to a Changing Climate , 2008 .

[33]  P. Kushner,et al.  Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and links with eurasian land surface variability , 2007 .

[34]  S. Kobayashi,et al.  The JRA-25 Reanalysis , 2007 .

[35]  ’. ROSSD.BROWN.  Interannual Variability of Landfast Ice Thickness in the Canadian High Arctic , 1950-89 , 2006 .

[36]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Dependence of the structure of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode on the polarity of ENSO , 2002 .

[37]  J. Wallace,et al.  Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation , 2002 .

[38]  Ross D. Brown,et al.  Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian monthly snow depths, 1946–1995 , 1998 .