Forest fire risk modeling in Uttarakhand Himalaya using TERRA satellite datasets

Abstract Forest fire is one of the major causes of degradation in western Himalaya, and is an annual phenomenon in more than 50% in the forests of Uttarakhand state. Fire danger models are useful for the fire managers to mitigate and suppress the fire activates. MODIS 8 day products viz. MODIS Terra Land surface reflectance (MOD09A1), MODIS Terra Land surface Temperature (MOD11A2) and ASTER digital Elevation Model (DEM) were used to develop fire danger model in this paper. Three parameters Modified Normalized Difference Fire Index (MNDFI), Perpendicular Moisture Index (PMI) and potential surface temperature were computed from the above mentioned satellite products. MNDFI has been used for determining the actual fire occurrence in thermal anomaly pixels and PMI has been used for the estimation of live fuel moisture content in the vegetation and litter. The Potential surface temperature was computed using the MODIS Land Surface Temperature and ASTER DEM. Spatial model was developed based on the above parameters and MODIS terra and Aqua thermal anomaly product (fire location) was used for the validation of the model in the study area. The fire danger models showed an accuracy of 87.31%, i.e. the model accurately predict the fire danger over the study area. Further analysis was done based on composite fire danger image and vegetation types; composite fire danger image and fragmentation map of the study area.