Employment Growth in Italian Local Labour Systems: Issues of Model Specification and Sectoral Aggregation

Abstract In this paper we construct a model to estimate local employment growth in Italian local labour markets for the period 1991–2001. The model is constructed in a similar manner to the original models of Glaeser et al. (1992), Henderson et al. (1995) and Combes (2000). Our objective is to identify the extent to which the results estimated by these types of models are themselves sensitive to the model specification. In order to do this we extend the basic models by successively incorporating new explanatory variables into the model framework. In addition, and for the first time, we also estimate these same models at two different levels of sectoral aggregation, for the same spatial structure. Our results indicate that these models are highly sensitive to sectoral aggregation and classification and our results therefore strongly support the use of highly disaggregated data.

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